Why does TA not work (for you)?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Xspurt, Aug 4, 2012.

  1. ocean5

    ocean5

    "Inductivity is one of the elements of this screen The screenrelies heavily on inductivity of the market participants. Inductivity is defined as the characteristic of market participants to extend their thinking and actions on small steps that are contiguous to the present state.

    The vast majority of market participants are highly inductive. This results in them being slow to picture the eventual result of the change. Their slowness presents an opportunity that ZYX Change Analysis captures to get ahead of the crowd in both entries and exits."

    This is a crapola.Getting ahead of the crowd is even more doomed,then after the crowd, as the crowd is usually top or bottom fishers.How can you get ahead of the crowd if the crowd is always wrong?What a total piece of caca!
     
    #891     Aug 12, 2012
  2. Surf missed this one, not intentionally I'm sure but he said he's a trader that likes to write about his experiences. Wondering which career he's made more money from so far?

     
    #892     Aug 12, 2012
  3. There are not any edges that last. The market can't allow it. A lasting edge would destroy the market.
     
    #893     Aug 12, 2012
  4. ocean5

    ocean5

    The ever lasting edge is to properly plot coordinates on the chart and then wait, and then scan them at different angles..hershey titties.Usually you can see A LOT(here i`m lying),a little,a couple of Langoliers at those coordinates.
     
    #894     Aug 12, 2012
  5. Define "lasting"

     
    #895     Aug 12, 2012
  6. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Back to the chart I posted yesterday (which so far nobody cared to comment on or perhaps nobody saw a potential trade setup there).

    I will play the part of my five hypothetical technical price action traders and describe the potential trades the traditional technical price action trader might find here.

    SETUP: The price environment demonstrated within the narrow confines of this chart tells us that a previous down trend has reversed and buyers are clearly in control. No one is selling hard into the strength of buy stops clustered above each previous resistance level on the way up; in fact price is just blowing right through those levels. This convinces traditional TA traders to "think continuation" as my traditional trend-following mentor drilled into my head day after day.

    1. A micro-scalper would either place a buy stop above the high on the chart, or above the high of the small red pullback bar at the right edge, expecting to scalp several ticks profit off what should be a decent stop run at the very least. A micro scalper would exit immediately if either entry level produced no follow through. Micro scalpers have no room to take large losses. Price action micro scalpers have high win rates with small profits and small losses. What's the downside, why doesn't everyone do this? It requires a level of concentration that few people have and absolute mastery of the trader's mindset as described by Mark Douglas.

    2. An intraday "price swing" scalper (me, for example) would either place a buy stop above the high of the chart, above the high of the small red pullback bar at the right edge, or place limit orders to buy somewhere between the low of the small red pullback bar and the previous resistance zone in the first half of the chart. The stop loss if a buy stop is used to enter need not be greater than a few ticks below the inside bar because a break of the high following a strong run and a shallow pullback will produce quick follow through or will likely pull back quite a bit more deeply if it fails to do so. If you're a scalper, why risk a large loss relative to the expected profit, when you can take a small loss and get back in if a secondary setup appears. The continuation price swing to be expected if the break of this high attracts another round of buying is a move equal to the move from previous support (low of the 7th and 9th bar prior to the last bar shown) to the high on the chart. This is known as a "measured move" and is about 20 grid lines on this chart. The measured move is measured from the consolidation low or pivot low of the pullback.

    3. An intraday trend-follower who scalps price swings only in the direction of a trending move would do the same thing as trader #2.

    4. An intraday trend follower who holds through retraces (and possibly adds to a profitable position during retraces) likely initiated a long position with small size off the 1-2-3 setup from consolidation at the lows on the chart. The first "add" would've occurred during the breakout of the next consolidation, and now the second add will take place on the breakout of this possible consolidation at the right edge. The profit targets will be based on a larger time frame.

    5. A counter-trend scalper who only trades contrary to a strong directional price move may have shorted via a limit order near the high of the chart if, and only if that level was a key "previous support becomes resistance" level on a higher time frame or further back on the current chart (which is hidden from our view here). Assuming the next key resistance level is not at the high of this chart, the counter-trend trader has absolutely no reason to put on a short position here, even if the low of the small red inside bar is broken. This is the same reason why trader #2 who trades both directions would not contemplate a short position here either.
     
    #896     Aug 12, 2012
  7. ocean5

    ocean5

    Hershey`s Lego is good for the 'context',but NOT enough!
     
    #897     Aug 12, 2012
  8. I don't talk about personal details for obvious reasons. Sorry!

    Surf
     
    #898     Aug 12, 2012
  9. zdreg

    zdreg

    TA doesn't work because it is gigo. the gypsy tea leaf reader down the block does a better job.
     
    #899     Aug 12, 2012
  10. ocean5

    ocean5

    Stokastic
     
    #900     Aug 12, 2012