Bros BSAM & Surf, as Tonkadad pointed out earlier, I was indeed dripping with sarcasm and I absolutely do use the 5m chart....... .......but I've been using the....... (please be sure there's a defibrillator nearby before continuing) .......1m chart more than ever over the past several months. :eek: :eek: :eek: Bro Surf, I receive no monetary reward for proving TA works. I've no books to sell, no trading services to subscribe to, not even promises of firstborn sons. I simply believe that PA/TA trading is the safest way to trade and carries the promise of longevity for one's trading career because it teaches one how to trade any instrument through varying market environments and conditions, so that one never need worry that "the markets have changed" or "my edge doesn't work any more". Bro Tonk, although I believe you are an actual person (I mean, I seem to recall having actually spoken with you at some point, no?), I can't know with absolute certainty that Redneck is. However, even if he is simply a trading bot disguised as an actual person, that in no detracts from the fact that he once suggested that I look at a couple noisy charts in tiny time frames and observe a few simple price action patterns and it changed my entire view of trading. Regarding Aunt Martha: Tonk, are you insinuating that "town" has an exploitable edge???? Should we start a new thread?
I don't know you, and have no intention to discredit you. I'm just venturing the idea that if Somebody doesn't understand something, it doesn't mean that the something can't be understood by others. Your claims that you are "very well versed in technical analysis", and that you were an MTA, don't necessarily lead to the conclusion that what you believe about TA and the market is true, as an example your assertion about the randomness.
I dont disagree with you. Based On my experience, research and connections in the business,Including pro traders and fund managers ( I have 50 plus interviews with fundees etc published). In addition to working with several funds and raising capital for others. my thoughts on TA are correct. Could I be wrong, sure. However, all the evidence I have supports my contention. What are the reasons you believe TA works? Hopefully this explains how I came to my opinions Surf.
I've seen a few commentary in this thread that's incorrect. Myth #1 - Pro traders don't use TA. I've sat in the trading office of several institutions in U.S., Canada and France. I've seen institutional traders using charts (no indicators) but its still TA. Just the same, I've seen institutional traders with indicators on their charts. I've also seen institutional traders use only bid/ask screens. Yet, I know that they're not dependent upon their charts, bid/ask screens and so on for their trade decisions. Simply, TA is just one tool they're using with many other tools and those other tools are more important. Reality is that retail traders are more dependent upon TA than pro traders. My point is that I've never met a profitable trader that uses TA exclusively and nothing else. Regardless if someone is a pro trader or retail trader...profitable traders using TA are also dependent upon money management, proper capitalization, trading experience, position size management, collaboration resources, data/equipment reliability and many other resources... On any given trading day, anyone of the above tools will impact someone's profitability more than the other tools being used. The markets are far too complicated for us traders to be using TA successfully all by itself and nothing else. Thus, don't fool yourself into believing you'll be profitable via TA alone while abandoning money management, proper capitalization, trading experience, position size management, collaboration resources, data/equipment reliability and many other resources. * TA works but only if you have a good trading plan involving the above mentioned variables. * TA does not work if you have a poor trading plan involving the above mentioned variables. Myth #2 - I use charts for reference only but its not TA. The moment you open a chart and start doing any kind of price analysis...its technical analysis even if you have not plotted any indicators because the plotted price quotes as bars, line, candlesticks, dotted, histogram, color coded is a technical plot in itself. In contrast, if you're only using bid/ask/time & sales screens without any technical plots...it is not TA. Therefore, if you truly believe you don't use TA or that TA doesn't work. You should never look at another chart again (seriously). Thus, you'll trade via bid/ask/times & sales screens only. Myth #3 - If TA works...prove it via showing your trade statements. Trade statements, real-time posted trades do not prove that TA works. It will only prove that you're profitable or not profitable. Also, does not indicate the interaction of all those critical variables (e.g. money management, proper capitalization, trading experience and so on) with your use of TA as mentioned earlier. Myth #4 - You can prove TA works via posting hindsight charts. Let me know if you believe such so that I can put you on my ignore list. -------------------- Oddly, go start a thread about money management, position size management, reliable data/equipment and any other variables that's critical to one's success or failure...you'll barely get a few replies or a few pages here at ET or at any other trader forum. Same TA debate thread...every month and every year...with a few new user names.
I trade pretty short term so luckily I don't have to wait too long, plus I trade about 10 futures markets so I have plenty to do. But yeah...I could imagine guys who trade longer term might want to try and wait it out not knowing when the next one will come along. As far as the win %. Some of my best results have been in markets where I am winning 50-55%, but the avg win is a lot larger than the average loser. Some of the best traders I have been around were 50% win guys...... As crazy as it sounds, I have seen some scalpers who have had crazy high win rates...70-80%....but they take monster losses the few times they do lose. Scratch traders at best..........
is it possible you used it for so long that you can see it blind,in other words you are still using TA in your mind to flip the on off switch when you make your random entry
Correct Tonkadad is one word. That was just a test to see if you were a bot or not. One last question: A true redneck will know the correct response to the following. This is your one chance to clear your good name, are you man or bot? I call this the three J's. Fill in the blanks, We're about John _______, Johnny ________ and John __________ way out here. p.s. Make sure you have some twang in your responses.