I have zero interest in reading through all of that. If you can't answer a simple question..well......it's a huge tell. From what I see of your trading ideas you just seem to fade big moves. Works sometimes...but when you get caught on wrong side you will blow out your account.
I'm still trying to get an answer on what his defintion of a price driver is. Is a bad employment number that drives the SP futures down 20 handles a price driver? If so he's just kind of guessing on fundamentals. Without a defined entry/exit strategy it will get him nowhere.
I define it earlier in this thread. surf I'll republish just for you: Thanks, sorry for the delay. 1. A price driver is what actually moves price. It has nothing to do with price itself--price is the effect not the cause-- one needs to know the cause to get an edge. the fixation on past price only is what I believe is the fatal flaw of TA--I am not going to talk about specifics, but price drivers can be news, economic reports, insider buying, large players buying or selling, the book, HFT activity---among proprietary items that I am not going to mention. <b> the price driver is my proprietary system regarding how these items are used together and accessed to create a directional bias on the entry</B> the system's goal is to provide a real edge on the entry--- after the entry, its up to you to manage the trade-- I can't help you there. 2. Obviously, HFT is not the only way to profit-- but it is the most successful trading method ever created. Anyone can profit from the market-- even astrologers-- google my friend Arch Crawford-- an Astrologer with the #1 ranked newsletter for a number of years---profiting does not mean the process isn't random-- everyone has streaks of wins, regardless of the method-- some even will reach a critical mass during a winning streak then be able, via money management, to keep profiting. The method doesn' matter-- survivorship bias comes into play here-- in other words, we only hear from the winners or liars-- the vast majority lose thus are no longer heard from again as they move on to other pursuits where they may find success. 3. The HFT I am familiar with does not use "past price data". It uses the book and intermarket relationships for decisions making. 4. Sounds to me that your last point is talking about randomness. The pattern works until it doesn't . You call this "certain conditions" and "certain points of time". You say patterns work, then they don't but sometimes they come back--i call this randomness----- You realize you can only see this in the past? Patterns do not matter after the entry. You are using hindsight bias to defend the TA religion. If what I am saying resonates with anyone, my suggestion is to find a REAL EDGE or EMBRACE THE FACT THAT YOU ARE DEALING WITH RANDOMNESS and deal with it-- Regardless of the absurdity of TA-- you can and will profit from trading if you approach it the right way.... surf
So you are a fundamental guy. That's cool. Whatver works for you. But to continue on here saying that what you do works and what others doesn't (Ta, price action, pattern recognition) is a joke. Sorry. But I have been a trader professionally since 1992. I know guys who traded certain set ups/patterns back then and did great. They are still trading using the same ideas and doing great today. It all comes down to risk mgmt/discipline. You could sit a TA guy next to a "price driver" guy on a trading desk. If neither has a good exit strategy they both will never make it. To say that the fundamental guy/price driver guy has an edge over a TA/pattern recognition guy has no merit.
This is WAY beyond fundamentals. I agree that exits are crucial, but they are based on ones personal risk tolerance and capital allocation--- in other words, exits are subjective depending on ones goals. I contend that a TA guy with good discipline and money management would do just as well with random entries as chart based entries. Obviously the TA guy is using the past to guess the future price-- Price Driver traders use price drivers that exist prior to price moving therefore they have an edge over the past price brigade.
Why do you insist on calling entries for TA trading "random"? My entries are entirely OBJECTIVE and NON RANDOM. My exits can be either, and this is where experience and an understanding of volatility come into play.
I thought you were only interested in quantifiable methods?? Subjective exits do not seem to fit this mold.