Why does TA not work (for you)?

Yes, it's absolutely true. This and other tenants of TA can and have been extensively tested and proven not to contain an edge. However to be fair, a slight edge was documented for one type of TA method ( but it wasn't enough to break even after fees costs). I forget what was found to have this minuscule edge.

Think about it-- people win in casinos all the time, in fact a few win consistently over time--- but the odds are stacked against them. Why is this? Well, it's the same reason an astrologer has the #1 ranked newsletter for years for market calls and why some TA users win. Understand this and you shall understand sister doji.

Brother blackhand and I deal in objective reality-- it seems the TA crowd deals in hearsay, hero worship, and subjective reasoning.

 

Surfer, you have not tested everything. It's probably not possible to do so. You've only scratched the surface.

Regards,

RR

 

I have not personally-- that's correct. However, I have access to the research( academic and otherwise) and a group I am part of runs thousands of tests on every new permutation of TA or claim. Could there be something I don't know yet? Absolutely. Would love to have the tests run on it.

 

What you really mean is that he's only scratched the Surface.

 

The odds are stacked again ANYONE who trades by the rules (ie no insider trading). Regardless of method.

 

I think made myself clear on my stance on TA.

But there is no way someone is going to tell me "pros" whatever they mean by that, (if they mean hedge funds, pention funds etc) do not look at channels and trendlines and big MA's, I can't believe that. I am not talking 5min charts of course. Someone along the line, even if they (the fund) is dealing with value investing or whatever the case, the one executing the orders is most likely (not in all cases) looking at TA as well. In fact I think it's proof enough that they are tested so often on breaks, as that is where orders and stops rest.

 

Every new permutation? As brother black would say....NO WAY JOSE! LOL

 

Yes, I agree for the most part. However, structural edges and non illegal information can shift the odds and provide a real edge.

 

I'll use this to coonect with you ASAP.

regards.

 

Some may look at them to illustrate what has happened. But they are not used for trading decisions by the vast majority.