Do you use any other time frames or are you only using an 8 min "keyhole" view of the market? If you can't read the daily signal then the 4hr should be clearer and the 2 hr and 60min even clearer that PA was being driven up. This is going to cause a trend in your 8min charts so if you can read the bigger naked PA context then you will understand the reason for the momentum in the 8m. Trading short would clearly be counter trend, but if you don't see these signals then the power of the uptrend will catch you out. This was more telegraphed than black swan. Try adding the floor trader moving averages for trends and pull backs and see if that helps on the shorter time frames (9 plus 18 ema)
Xspurt, When I look at the market now I gravitate towards incongruent formations, for example similar highs accompanied by higher lows. The result is a triangle that may be the beginning of a box. This gives me clear bullish/bearish lines but leaves 1. Accuracy of my projections in play and, 2. True intent of price (e.g. dropping book to accumulate or selloff - this can sometimes be seen by how it unfolds sequentially). Curious your thoughts on this approach. Thanks. BD
At least someone else on this forum knows their stuff! "Patterns can form within larger patterns and as you stated can morph into a different shape. Often you can predict the breakout direction from a combination of larger time frame pressure" So, I went over my math and solved next weeks short setup. Who is going to short 1410 or 1406 with me? Woo...
Ocean!!! I solved your problem... Your issue is your not trading the full fractal/range. If your going to hold overnight you have to do 3-5 day swing trades minimum... There is no other way around it. The odds are against you otherwise. You have to hold for entire trade cycles.
TA doesn't work for trading. It's a descriptive not predictive tool that can be used to time entries AFTER the price drivers are understood for your particular trade- in other words, TA folks are on the wrong path. Patterns don't repeat in an xploitable fashion-- when trading stocks study the book prior to the trades executing-- there is value here. Looking at the past charts is dangerous mental masterbation that doesn't end well.
If you are using TA to time an entry, that sounds like working TA to me. In fact I thought that what TA was all about, when to get in and out of the market rather than looking at past charts. Perhaps I am taking you up wrong Anything to do with an entry is predictive: if it is not then you are taking a random chance. So if you are using TA to time an entry how is TA not predictive?
No, the directional bias is preset without regard to past price action --- I know my entry will be long or short without looking at past charts--- TA simply used to drill down into timing when to enter not what direction. It's not really needed at all. But it may help so I use it in this manner. Determining directinal bias based on TA is faulty logic and not based on reality.