I thought I was done with this thread but I now see the exact same thing occurring that happen many years ago when surf, TraderZone, Daal and a few others demanded live calls over a small duration of time like several months. 1) Posting "before the fact" (not as they are occurring in real-time but before price reaches the entry signal) or real-time as they're occurring trades does not prove that TA is profitable assuming the results of the trades are profitable. In contrast, it only proves that you are profitable. Simply, if you don't share the in-depth details of your TA and don't share the in-depth details of how you're using TA with those other important tools (e.g. money management) in your trading plan... It will be impossible to prove that TA is useful in your trading regardless if you're using it via the perspective of science or art because these guys will find a reason (prepared to use) to dismiss the reasons why you're profitable. 2) There are already existing trade journals that have live calls online and a few here at Elitetrader...some before the fact, others in real-time as they occurred, others with broker statements as proof of a few of the live calls. The problem is that the TA was not shared or only had some generic reference. That in itself pssst off surf and gang because that's what they are really after...they want to know the exact details of your TA and how you're using it. They are on record in the past via specifically saying as replies that if they don't have access to the codes of your TA...its art, voodoo or lucky. Therefore, they will dismiss any live calls after you've done them here at ET or anywhere else online (blog, website, Othernet/Financialchat, twitter, stocktwits, another trader forum) when you refuse to spoon feed them the in-details of how you're using TA regardless if you've been consistently posting live calls a few months or many years. To them you are just lucky. Note: Othernet, Financialchat is where traders from all over the world have been posting "before the fact" live calls, real-time trades, broker statements (by a few) since 1999...outside the realm of ET. Guys like surf pretend that if the info isn't posted at ET...it doesn't exist and never occurred. Therefore, there's no proof that traders are profitable while using TA because we all know that everything that has ever been posted online is only posted at Elitetrader.com 3) Remember, they (surf and company) use TA because they admit they use charts regardless if its only 5% or whatever of their trading plan. Yet, they dismiss their own use of charts via saying its for education, illustration only and has no impact in their trade decisions. 4) Your constant defense of TA as if you're using nothing else is what's fueling the disbelief of the TA bashers (closet TA users) like surf. Simply, why post live calls if you're unable or unwilling to post about those other variables in your trading plan (e.g. money management, capitalization, position size, equipment/software, collaboration and other variables) that's being used with the TA 5) There are many articles by academia as proof that TA does not work while there are many articles by academia as proof that TA does work or have value in ones trading plan...all of them using TA differently and many links to these articles have been posted here at Elitetrader.com, other trader forums or elsewhere online. Yet, depending upon your research skills, bias, trading success or failures...you will decide which is believable. 6) Elitetrader.com trade journal section @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=29 Good luck (pun intended) with trying to prove something to surf and I'm sure you'll conclude like I did many years ago...he's not worth the time & effort.
His trading was an occasional winner here and there, followed by a gigantic loser that would wipe out all profits and put him in the red. He would get obliterated then say "I am taking time off" and disapear. Then come back and start the same routine again. When he would have a trade go a small amount his way he would get out the pom poms and cheer about how he crushed it and was going to have huge profits. Then the position would come back and he would eek out a small profit. The trades that went against him initially he would martingale/average down. Sometimes he got bailed out and made a little, but other times he would lose a ton. Basically his biggest positions were the ones that he was getting hurt on, and the small ones were the ones he entered well at. Recipe for disaster.
Yep, which is why it's hilarious to see so many people dedicating time to convincing this crazy guy as if he any sort of authority.
Well, I posted a couple calls here using TA. (momentum trade and a breakout from a cup and handle/retracements. My belief is to keep it simple as it really is simple. I almost feel many profitable traders make it comPlicated deliberately either because they do not want you to know what they are truly doing is very basic or they are not profitable at all and need to complicate trading to look important to others. I especially feel the first market wizards did such a good job in describing trading rules and what were almost secrets at that time that many were turned on to the business and the following books were deliberately ambiguous as the the traders in the newer wizards did not want to give their secrets away. There was nothing valuable in the following wizards that even cumulatively matched the original. Including the latest, Hedge Fund MW. It sucked IMO. Most of what we need to know is in the original. Again IMO.
If you remember, besides that above, was there any source that had a retail trader orientation that appealed to you (At the time you began trading)? Mine was Magee, 4th Ed. in 1957. Then I just saved the last page of the WSJ for backploting new high beta stocks on brownlines.
Okie dokie, time frame is daily, Chart is SNP500 to trade ES or SPY. Price on Friday finally confirmed a buy signal recieved on 8/10. So we are long on close at 1416 as of 8/16. This the entry I will give this paper trade to account for slippage. Stop is a close below 1392
It's not that. Surf is providing us some fun with these Anti-TA posts. He is well aware of the overwhelming sentiment of this board.
I think the main thing I took out of the Market Wizards books over the years was not what each trader did as far as strategy, but what they all had in common...which was saying that controlling risk and having a defined stop loss(knowing where the hell you are gonna get out) was numero uno. From the guys who had beyond in depth complex strategies to floor guys like Baldwin....they all said basically agreed on this point. Most of them also made a point of saying "leave your ego at the door", if you refuse to admit when wrong you WILL get obliterated at some point. Unfortunately for guys like Neiderhoffer....they can't/couldn't follow these two important things. That's why he blew out and failed as a fund manager. Obviously VN (and SURF... ) are very smart guys, but IQ, where you got your degree, SAT scores etc don't always lead to success in the trading world. I have been fortunate enough over the last 20 years to trade around some great traders/and some horrible traders. Learned a lot from both. The great ones understood risk management, the horrible ones didn't and routinely went on tilt, had no patience, no idea when to take a loss....were basically degenerate gamblers most of the time. This thread has gone probably 100 pages too long. Surf has that effect on threads. But at the end of the day, without proper risk management/defined stop losses, no strategy will work. TA, Fundamentals, even the all mighty powerful price drivers are not worth shit without a proper exit strategy for taking off a losing position. Luckyluciano, I haven't gotten around to reading the new Hedge Fund Wizards book. Out of curiosity, what didn't you like about it? I traded on a desk next to where one of them runs his fund. Great guy. In my opinion definitely a "market wizard".......