Yeah, maybe Neiderhoffer missed a couple of tests on that "volatility edge". I just find the whole "Oh, that's already been done by so-and-so" annoying. Primarily because the number of ways in which an edge can be discovered is, for practical purposes, nearly infinite. The scope for creativity is open-ended in the markets. Clearly, you don't want to base your trades on spurious correlations, but the idea that, for example, there's only one volatility-based edge in the entire universe is ludicrous and no serious person would ever think that, much less say it out loud. And, surf, FYI, even your buddy Aronson has a volatility-based edge he wrote up on his website for EBTA. I guess your extensive knowledge of the literature on volatility didn't extend that far. But, at least now you know there are at least 2 volatility-based edges in existence.
VN is still worth $100 million plus, was ranked as the number one hedge fund manager in the WORLD for several years, and does what he wants, when he wants, where he wants. Not to mention laid the groundwork for much of modern trading theory. Plus the dozen plus highly successful 100 million plus fund managers that are a direct result of his tutelage. Its quite funny watching anonymous message board trolls spout their nonsense. By the way, the 97 blow up was due to an exchange conspiracy-- VN sued the exchange and WON proving this fact. surf
There are tons of them. You mentioned it like it was the holy grail that works across all time and all markets--- a novel idea. I was merely pointing out that it is an old old idea. why didn`t you list aronson initially rather than `suggesting`it was your ideaÃ
Especially concerning trading methods that they know nothing about but still continue to hemorrhage opinions of what can or can't be done.
hey they have been making crazy good work out of the wheel for 100's of years.. but yeah it isn't made out of a rock anymore! haha look if everyday a sucker is born.. the same card game will beat him... over complicating things causes you to get mixed up in the noise.. the bait and switch works still to this day! haha
Marketsurfer I agree with most of what you say. Traders are easily deluded into thinking their system works. You keep searching for proof a system works so I will point you to one. Ebbs charts are based on cycles so I don't know if it falls in TA category per se. He has a Ebb Chart Primer site, google it, with four pages of great info about his patterns and result. Unlike regular TA charts his are objective and quantifiable. Want your opinion on this guy's 3-D charts. As far as I can tell, he used cycles to get buy/green or short/red signal from three ETF: SPY,VXF, EFA. Say on Monday he gets a buy signal for SPY, VXF, EFA. That is green, green, green. On Tuesday, a buy signal for SPY, VXF, short signal for EFA and that is green, green, red. The three green/red signals have a maximum eighth combinations, patterns 1 to 8. What is interesting is how his green patterns ,GGG, GGR, GRG, RGG and red patterns, RRR, RRG, GRR, RGR behaved. The green patterns had a 52% winning percent, the reds had 55%. That is contrarian. _He tallied the result of the market day with the pattern of the day for the past six years. _His best discovery this year is the triple patterns. That is when a pattern, say a RRR appears _three times in consecutive, Monday RRR, Tuesday RRR, Wednesday RRR. _It is rare to happen but is significant because he says it "marks a turning point in the market". Have not seen anything like it anywhere, it is very innovative which is why it works. I wonder if he chose IBM, Apple, gold _or other to sub for SPY, VXF, EFA if it is better or worse. _ His ebb chart triple patterns timeline signals - April 16, 2007 to August 2, 2007 - SHORT August 3, 2007 to December 6, 2007 - BUY December 7, 2007 to April 17, 2009 - SHORT April 20, 2009 to June 9, 2011 - BUY June 10, 2011 to September 22, 2011 - SHORT September 23, 2011 to February 8, 2012 - BUY Avoided the 2008 and 2011 crashes. Arguably the best timing system if it performs the way it has moving forward. Holy grail, time will tell. _ _
I don't know everything, but I have not seen one iota of evidence that objective fixed TA works in 20 plus years of daily market work/study. What else can I base this belief on? What folks tell me on an anonymous message board?
I've never seen "price drivers" work but if you have been trading it successfully for years (and are not trying to sell me anything), then I would not get on a soap box and proclaim you are lying. I understand there are ways to make money that I am clueless about and that's why I only stick to talking about what I know.
dude price drivers work..... IE .. vol up into earnings... thats price driving.. IE anticipation of product release with aapl... Fed buying program etc.. etc..