Because if they are successful they are among a very few and basically ARENT HERE. would you be here if you were making millions? no. neither are they. do your work, there are no shortcuts.
lilduckling and loderunner had great answers, mine won't be as good but...i consider myself a semi-pro trader ( meaning trading is not a hobby, it is my only job and it is how i make a comfortable living) and you and people like you is exactly what keeps me in business. In our messed up MTV mentality it is always promoted instant gratification, with a minimum amount of effort aka "getting something for nothing" a fantastic concept at least in theory, you know like the $ 1.99 pill that makes you lose weight while you take a shower. To give you a "detailed idea" I sell that pill, they think it is worth to try because it is only $ 1.99 and that's all they pay, ( no effort no diet no workout, just an easy $ 1.99), while I try to sell the pill as many times as I can In trading they buy an option to make 2-3-5 times the money, I sell the options. Unfortunately with very very few exceptions, in reality, something for nothing does not work ! Obvioulsy if you asked the question you asked you belong to 97% of people who believe that for some reasons, they should be entitled to, and could get away with "something for nothing." Write a question on a financial board and get an instant formula on how to make a lot of money starting tomorrow, pretty simple right ? You don't ask/want too much. You deserve a detailed trading advice to be succesful. Well then, keep reading, you might get your magic answer, but I wish you lot's of luck, you are going to need it.
Hi Guys, there are some similadiry in dating and trading. Let's not forget that men are compiting for women, and women are competing for men. Supporting another man with dating advice teoretically redures your own chances, too. Concerning the trading: it in the wourld there are app. 100 mil. traders/investors, how much will a trading advice to another guy reduce your own chances for success? Maybe 0,0000001% or less because the advice will not be taken, most probably. And thus Mr.Richard Denns said in the Market wizards, that if he publishes the trading rules in a newspaper, almost noone will follow them, BUT he didn't piblish them ... ha ha ha Shy guy!!!
Why should I? What's in it for me? I've been trading for over 15 years. Lost about $100,000+ leanringand now you want me to give it all away? OK here are the keys to my house a swell.
there isn't a magic formula to being successful at trading. i've seen plenty of what i would consider 'detailed' advice
I forgot to add, that losing money is a rite of passage - also commonly referred to as tuition. Successful traders have all paid it, why would they give up the fruits of their labor to someone who is not willing to pay the costs? Livermore himself has said that when you finally learn something, you should keep it a secret because it is yours and worth keeping secret.
There are bits and pieces of good information on this site and when I find myself over tradign it is very nice to connect with traders. I do no tcare if they are struggling or successful.. it is still nice to see and read what others have to say. AS far as successful.. i'm sure outof the 90,000 users.. that 15,000 of those never looked at his again.. that anohter 30,000 don't look at it anymore.. and that on average and this is a guess that 1,000 people post regularly. I would say there might be amaximum of 50 to 100 people on this sight that are successful with trading. I would gander that maybe 4-5 people who post and look at this site make over 500K consistently every year. I am successful, but no where near 500K consistently. I traded prop at firm and most of the guys trading were in their for fun or they had 50K to piss away and try to get rich.. NONE of them really ever made any big money including a guy who would put on 500K to 1 million dollar swing trades.. these guys were smart with business and they knew what they were doing.. and the times oh yes they were good back then... guess what .. the company folded on its own because no one was making consistent money by day trading. I'll end this with the fact that in any business or sport you can be an amazing player or doctor or lawyer or garbage man or janitor and you have the opportunity to earn while learnign a trade and garnering experience and connections in the industry, but wiht trading like gambling.. you lose and lose while trying to learn .. which is not only a monetary loss, but also an ENORMOUS opportunity COST !!!!!!! Seriously if so many people made huge money or even 100K to 200K per year DAY trading stocks.. then you would "see" the statements and hear about them around town. Your accountant if you were in good wiht him could give you the names of 30 clients who only trade for a living and are raking it in.. IT IS SOOO RARE MY FRIENDS .. TAKE A COMMON SENSE APPROACH AND THINK ABOUT IT. The ultra successful people at trading are not hiding their strategies because there is no way to systemize a GUT feeling or intuition..okay just liek a poker pro cannot truly giv eyou his "secret" because it is sheer talent not a system. I asked my accountatn for a list and he said he did not have one client who had positive gains for the year last year when they traded daily or weekly.. however, he did have long term investors who were making money off dividends and share appreciation. BE CAREFUL HOW LONG YOU STAY IN THIS TRADING BUSINESS.. unless you are wealthy or have no other obligations in life.
AS far as giving up secrets.. there really aren't any my friends.. yes certain tactics and strategies come and go, but new traders on this site think there is some secret society where all the true successful traders hsare information and do the smae thing!.. News flash if they were all doing the same thing .. utilizing this secret.. then it would no longer yield any kind of return.. there are styles and great educated guessers.. but if you think there will ever be a tried and true "system" that alwasy works.. then you should quit trading now and especially stop searching for the elusive "holy Grail" secret. If you look at my previous posts i always when making a trade RECo tell everyone.. 1. where and why I am entering 2. where and why my stop loss is placed 3. THe time and or price that I am exiting as a profit target. my best trades ever are selling option premium in the sp 500 and DJIA futures. On the day of expiration and about three weeks before expiration. I strangle the market by selling a ratio of calls and puts. I say best becaseu this is on consistency alone.. best day ever.. selling options $ 5200 bucks.. back in 2003! mad eit in about 2 hours. BEst month selling options.... 30K Worst day selling premium... $ 2200 loss Best day trading futures... $ 7200 R2k emini 10 lot buying on a stop to enter after fed announce.. in trade for 13 minutes. Worst day trading futures.. r2k e-mini lost $ 8600 bucks and did about 125 round turns.. Worst 3 days ever trading... 2000 or 2001 i sold roughly 90 % of teh open interest in the us dollar index calls and puts.. sounds huge but no one was tradign it all back then in the options.. i lost 325K in three days.. yes i couild have gotten out .. but i was 24 years old and more bull headed than the meanest biggest bull out there.. I had nothing left at that point and I had to exit. I was up 70 % that year bu tthat loss wiped out all gains plus anothjer 75 % . I lost this becaseu i did not use stops on my options and because I was the market ..it was illiquid! I thought there was no way the us dolla rwoul dbreak 116 or 117! All of my puts expired worthless (yea!) but i still tok the 325 K loss .. anyway take it form me.. this is not easy and at some point you just might lose your discipline and in teh course of a few mintues , hours, or days, you could lose everything you worked very hard to build.. SO USE STOPS AND CUT YOUR LOSSES.. OKAY NOT TO END ON ABAD NOTE.. IN 2005 i took 30K and bought 10 gold options.. 6 months later I cashed out at 119K gold was ar 710 an ounce. i started buying them around 400 to 480. This amount was made by me placing the trade and sitting on it.. trust me i wanted to sell when up 40K but I did not.. i held.. my poin tbeing that long term holding is not good.. but holding for a long time and exiting is.. then wait and get back in etc. Rule #1 do not lose money Rule # 2 READ RULE NUMBER 1 AGAIN A friend of mine who trades told me that the other day.. he is very successful.. and consistent. His secret? I have it .. you want to know what it is.. oh you won't believe me anyway.. Stochastics and volatility stochaastics and volatility. AND MONEY MANAGEMENT! I have a couple academic papers on tradign that prove technical analysis works. i'LL POST THEM IF ANYONE WOULD LIKE TO READ THEM GOOD LUCK JAY
This whole post is brilliant., and I am posting only what I am responding to. My comments: 1. There are other ways out. Price becomes constant (no/ small fluctuations not worth trading) 2. I think I understand your point that even if stocks were not a zero-sum game, the entire games has to have losers, and I agree with you. But a large proportion of stocks would be a negative sum game. A way I look at it is this. Any stock has a life-time. It can then be viewed as an equivalent to a futures contract with a longer time period (but a finite one nonetheless). We know that futures are a negative sum, primarily because of the finite time and also because of no-payment of dividend from the outside of the futures trading system. The only aspect of stocks that may play against the zero sum possibility are dividends. That is why I think that dividend paying stocks should lead to better odds for a profitable investor (but for a trader this may not be relevant). There is another aspect that one needs to take into account in assessing the zero same game of stocks: the initial stock price. A stock starts its life at a non-zero price, but always ends at zero. Someone pays the difference between the non-zero initial price and the resting price of zero. It is not the investment bankers who pay this, because they get their cut at the beginning, nor is it the initial investors for similar reasons. The public then pays that bill. It may take more than a hundred years for some stocks, but the vast majority go back to zero or a point lower than where they started in public markets, and therefore if one looks at the point of time where the stock went public and the point in time where the price reached below the initial price, the whole stock is surely a negative sum game (assuming that dividend was not paid, but if some was paid some adjustment need to be made, but usually it does not make a big of a difference overall). PS: A similar analysis can be made for profits in a market economy. Unlike earnings based on labor which is a compensation for skill/time, business profits have to come from somewhere, and they have to be paid somehow. The first source are the losses by those who try and fail in business, and the last source is a devaluation of the currency. I am making this point about profits, because trading is a business because there is capital risk and even if you spend time working on it there is no guarantee that you will make a profit. Trading is NOT a profession, it is a BUSINESS. You can find a doctor who is successful as an employee, but a failure as an owner of a medical business.