Why does no one here give detailed trading advice?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by hellothere, Aug 7, 2008.

  1. No no no, it's much simpler than all that. No successful trader is "supportive" because no successful trader is that stupid/suicidal. This isn't the Special Olympics... not everyone comes home with a medal. In most cases, helping other traders will actually cut into one's profits to some extent.

    To truly wrap your head around this, first consider those markets that are zero-sum games (e.g. futures, forex). "Zero-sum" means that every single dollar a trader makes is balanced by a dollar that some other trader loses (ignoring commissions and exchange fees, which actually make things negative.)

    Think about that for a moment. You're a *professional* trader... this is how you put bread on the table. The instrument you're trading is zero-sum. Some guy comes up to you and tells you that he's been losing money, and he asks you to teach him how to make money. So you sit down and explain your system to him, and he goes out and makes a bunch of money.

    That money he's making is coming directly out of your pocket--well, yours and every other successful trader's. And what if all the losers come knocking at your door, and you teach your system to all of them... you're turning losers into winners, but IT'S A ZERO SUM GAME... dollar for dollar, it's *impossible* for the winners to outnumber the losers. For every loser you convert into a winner, you make less money. Eventually, if your secrets become common knowledge, your system crumbles entirely and you (and everyone else using your system) become unable to turn a profit.

    This is why no one posts a straightforward how-to. It might be effective at first, but as it became common knowledge it would very quickly lose all predictive value.

    You might argue, "but what about stocks?! They're not zero-sum, right???" Well no, they aren't, but my explanation more-or-less applies to them as well. I'm not sure if I can explain this formally, but as far as I can figure there have to be losers in the stock market as well or else the entire thing would turn into a gigantic pyramid scheme ("bubble") that would inevitably collapse and take the entire economy with it. That's the crux of the matter... hyperinflation. If everyone KNEW that GOOG is going up 10% tomorrow, then everyone would buy GOOG right now, thus driving up the price *right now*. It's a vicious cycle, and from what I can figure there are only two ways out:

    1. The system loses its effectiveness.

    2. The entire market implodes due to hyperinflation, and the "everyone-wins" scenario turns into "everyone-loses."

    There are exceptions to the sharing_is_bad philosophy. On a very limited scale (i.e., non-public-forum), I believe that very specific strategies can be self-reinforcing.

    And then, of course, there's the fact that money isn't everything. Some successful traders will share just for the hell of it, in spite of all reason. They'll share with a few specific individuals, who will profit immensely, or they'll share with the world and their system will lose its magic.

    But the vast majority of traders... they're just going to sit there, vague and smug, enjoying the fruits of the system they worked so hard to build. And why not? The only alternative is to dilute their success, if not outright destroy it.

    This isn't like meeting women. There are more men than women in the world, so it's perfectly possible for ALL of the guys in the world to get married... but it's NOT possible for more than 50% of the ES traders in the world to make money.

    You need to buckle up, buckle down, get VERY serious about carving out your own niche in this game. If you're not ready to do that, quit wasting your time.

    Or, better yet, waste your time on some generic, publicly-available system... go ahead and throw some easy money out there for those of us who *are* serious about this game.
     
    #11     Aug 7, 2008


  2. Hey there hellothere.

    Welcome to ET community.

    Your question is a valid one, one which I, your humble little water chicken, will attempt to answer.
    Most here do not give specific answer for 2 reasons.
    First is, they themselves don’t know and are in the same quest you are.
    Second, the wiser traders know that even if they did tell you exactly how it is they make money, it would not necessarily work for you. You see, everyone processes information differently, reacts to situations differently, and operate proficiently and different stress levels so even id you were to follow a day trader and do everything he/she does, you would still lose money. And that’s a fact. Mainly, because you are following, and in this business, you need to carve your own path, or it will never ever work period.
    Seems impossible you say…. Utter nonsense you say…… “surely if I copy a successful trader through out the day, then I too will have winning trades.” OK, try it and let me know how it works out for you.

    “Oh but lilduckling, I don’t want someone to give me a fish, I want someone to teach me to fish.” Fair enough, but that just brings us right back to point number 2. That’s why most only give general advise here, its up to you to refine a method or idea, and hone it to fit you. You could take the trading plan from the top traders here and still you would have to modify it to fit you. Get it? Its all about you. That long hard journey that leads to success….. all you buddy. No one is going to walk it with you.

    As far as general trade strategies, well those are not hard to come by. Between the internet postings, books, tapes CDs, well you get the picture, you just don’t find a method, you trip over one, they’re about as common and plentiful as a locust in a bible plague.

    Problem: So many trading methods and strategies, how do I adopt one that might be altered to fit me without going nuts from looking at so many. Easy, first thing to remember is that it will only be training wheels, when you begin to understand the markets and how they work, you will realize that you don’t need a method from anyone but yourself. Until then, heed my suggestion and…..

    DISCARD any and all tapes, books, websites, Cds, that say they can show you how to make money in trading. No better advice I can give you than this. Don’t just walk away from someone that tells you they will show you how to make $$$…. Run!!

    That leaves only a few to work from…. Now its much easier to start your prospects in locating a good source for information. First up, start to cherry pick by making sure the source (book, website, tape, cd guru etc) states clearly that the technique or method will not guarantee that you will be successful even if you follow it to a T! Any honest person will tell you this upfront… beware of otherwise. Face it, 97% fail, if there was just one method or source out there that worked if followed, you think there would still be 97% failure?

    Man scuffled around mud and dirt looking for something to eat for hundredths of thousands of years, 10,000 yrs ago, someone had the idea to PLANT a seed, to see if it would grow. All of a sudden, man went from hunter/gatherer to farmer….. And look how our life chanced is just 10K years!! Why? Was the person that planted that first seed special? Well yeah, he/she thought of it, but more importantly, the process was successful if repeated! Starting to see the picture? The same success by repetition DOES NOT apply to trading. Or we would have 97% success rate and 3% failure.

    Pick your gurus wisely! Is this guru a trader, former trader, or a teacher? The last two should gave would some inkling on what to expect from this source. If it’s a trader, understand you will be given good direction, but not necessarily very specific. Former trader?… oh he’ll give you pin point focus methods.. But alas it will be akin to looking for a quarter in room A when where there’s light, when you actually lost it in room B, but its dark.

    Finally, let me just say that there are some ultra rare people in this field that are so talented in trading, it would appear they sold their soul to the devil for the skill. But its exactly that, skill, skill forged by the talent they process. That means if you would try to copy them, you would not have same results. Think of Michael Angelo giving you a very expensive course in art. Do you think you would be able to duplicate his works of art after you learned from him? Of course not.

    I hope you found my very vague post of some use. Best to you.

    EDIT: Let me add 2 things. No sane man goes looking for another to help him carry out gold coins from a cave.

    You will only start making real money in this when you understand YOURSELF as well as you do the markets.
     
    #12     Aug 7, 2008
  3. Rocko1

    Rocko1

    Hello there, Hellothere:

    Here's some practical truth.
    Your inability to get laid did not result from a lack of internet "speed seduction" research.
     
    #13     Aug 7, 2008
  4. Even if they did, would you be able to take advantage of it? I am not so sure about it.

    A friend of mine, an accomplished trader, has some largely emini vendor business on a side and he gives a very detailed advice.

    He thinks that perhaps 10% of his clients follow it. The rest keeps looking for that non-existent Holy Grail.
     
    #14     Aug 7, 2008
  5. No matter how good it is, you can give it away safely because most will either not get it or will not be able to follow. Why do you think most people fail in this business. It's not because of the lack of ideas but rather inablity to follow and execute them.

    Richard Dennis, of the Turtles fame, once said that even if he had published his trading rules in WSJ, most people would not be able to take advantage of that.
     
    #15     Aug 7, 2008
  6. Mate most arent but that is not the point you are trying to compare banging some bird with many peoples life work. Anyone can go and pick up a chick on a semi reg basis but developing a trading plan/system that works and is profitable is not so easy. Your pathetic attempts to goad someone into telling you their secrets was as pathetic as the rest of your post. Piss off and do the work yourself or pay someone to help you.
     
    #16     Aug 7, 2008
  7. Crap crap crap and all crap.

    People keep believing in secrets and crystal balls and crazy edges and this naive attitude just gives their inexperience away.

    Your ability to read the market while reacting efficiently to price and protecting your capital at all times with the utmost discipline is the only grail in trading.

    Everything else is but an illusion or fantasy stories of dreamers who think a magic program or indicator or special pattern is the key to riches.

    Learn to trade, it's a profession like any other, you just don't become a trader because someone gave you the magic sword it's through hard work and experience, just like an athlete, medic or whatever other profession you can think of that is worthy of respect.

    Anek
     
    #17     Aug 8, 2008
  8. You can get the chik drunk and get laid!!
    But Unfortunately , you can't get the market drunk and Make money:p
     
    #18     Aug 8, 2008
  9. the seduction community is definitely more supportive than the trading community.

    altho some of the posters in this thread have pointed out good reasons why.

    dating isnt quite a zero sum game, but he more mPUAs there are at a bar, the more competition there is.

    but pickup and buiding confidence is harder than working an effective trading methodology, i think.
     
    #19     Aug 8, 2008
  10. Trend trading is a known way of making money in the markets. Very few people have the proper psychology and discipline to engage in trend trading day after day for years.
     
    #20     Aug 8, 2008