Classical TA generates too many false signals. In itself it cannot generate high enough win rates and profit factors to cover commission costs. This has been debated for a long time. What you are missing is that TA is just another tool to use. If you spot a nicely formed flag and at the same time you get some good economic reports you may want to bet on a move.
Over the last 24 hours, there was an opportunity to earn about 40 ES points off of "4, TA plays"... starting with a long at about 13:20 ET.
I am up over 40 percent on a stock from a few weeks ago. It came up on a screen... it set up on an intraday pattern I like which helped define the risk. I took off half when it hit my target based off the pattern and it has consolidated or run in my direction ever since. It also happened to be in a hot sector. If you you do not think there is an edge in t/a you are nuts.
All the great traders in Michael Covel's book. Full documentation and proof is widely and easily available for those who need to verify the numbers. Actually when I saw that Michael is now an ET sponsor, I re-read his book last week. Not finished yet. Excellent book. I'm glad Michael is here.
An awesome trader, only in his mid-40s befriended me and took me to meet his broker friend - I opened my first account and he bought 30 stocks for me. I knew zip. His account info was right there in the computer as we sat side by side for days as he showed me stuff. He supported himself entirely on his stock trading earnings and he was defo no daytrader - he was a trend player. He made it very clear to me about daytrading and pulling in and out several times a day. He said flat out, "that's no way to play this game" - Successful? Do birds fly? Confident, cool, calm and powerfully contrarian. That was my buddy Craeg. He died tragically shortly after ...... RIP. even the broker told me, "we may never see another like him"
I do it everyday, have been profitable for about 7 years now, this weeks profits come from corn(dec), short yesterday at 5.11, covered today at 4.97, +.15, at $50 per cent x 10 contracts, you do the math, I do this all the time, just takes patients and a little technical analysis, do you consider the trend line tech analysis?
I found this on Michael Covel site. <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UwH5KEbAipY?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UwH5KEbAipY?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
I do it every week, for example see dec. Corn sold yesterday at 5.11, at the trend line, covered today at 4.97 + .14 cents at 50$ per cent x 10 contracts, you do the math... Ive been profitable for 7 years now, it just takes patients, and a little technical analisys, or do you consider a trend line technical analysis?
The first evidence appeared in writing around 1790. Jumping forward to NSF financed work efforts (NSF grant SBR - 9709976), you can look at the Journal of Finance, August 2000, pages 1705, etc... The discussion by Naraaimhan Jegadeesh on LMW begins on page 1765. Government money was used to produce this stuff. The Journal of Finance published the paid for work. Reading this product is a differnt experience for the spectrum of successful traders. Its like reading the posts of those who posted in this thread. People make decisions that preclude their understanding of opportunites. There are probably 100 papaers and researchers mentioned in this product. The concensus, easily determined, is that "past prices contain information for predicting future returns..." See page 1706. The humor of all of this can be generalized. In 295 days, regulations will be proferred as a way to deal with people who hedge the possibility that "past prices contain information for predicting future returns..." It is estimated by IBM that IBM will have to pledge more margin than they presently use for acquisitions annually. The really great aspect of this product is the infusion of "attitude" by all those mentioned and those who did what they called "the work". So now you have a 100 or so references and you can also go back in time and find the thread from 1790 onward which is even more productive. There is humor EVERY step of the way. TA applications have always been very successful. Every once in a while the CW gets a glimpse and they decide "how could is br true if we cant understand it or do it." It is just a perfect scenario. In less than 10 years there will be sit coms and Colbert type daily programs that spread this constant flow of humor to the public. For now, the people mentioned get to keep their heads in their sandbox sand. On page 1707, there are two hypothetical P, V charts. This stuff was paid forby NSF and others. this stuff appeared in the journal of finance. For those bars, count the fucking outside bars shown. Most of the people in the product are more than high school graduates. To get published an article may go through a panel. There is no quality in this product. the fact is some people may make decisions based on this stuff and the stuff cited. There has got to be a Hollywood producer alive somewhere today that can see the sitcom value in this product.