Today US got its first casualty from Flu and the market ignored it. The majority thinks this is not a big deal. I understand it is impossible to predict a black swan like a pandemic that happens avery 10-50 years (a low probability even). But right now we really have preconditions for it, so the likelyhood of a pandemic is pretty high. Yet, the market ignores it for now. I think the market will keep the flu on ignore until/unless flu casualties in US start piling up. The question is what is the threshold?