Well, what did you call Oct 2018? End of bull or a correction? What did you call Jan 2019? End of bear or a dead-cat bounce? Just trade what you see!
Why do you say this? You must know not to predict, if I knew 100% the market would fall in one week, why go short? The market can rise considerably prior. The bull will end when it ends, no need to know when, just keep doing what can be done with the information directly ahead. You are the captain of your own ship, don't follow me, be led and follow your own footsteps. Implant good thoughts and good results will follow.
this is damn good insight...just want to qualify .....you have to identify if the market is a ranging sort of environment...which is usually the case..then the above is true the tough thing is when the market is in between....a transition between a bull to a bear or vice versa since a market takes time to turn..
It should be like that - for now it is just a dream or you may perceive it as an illusion or settle it as a good target. Remember, for now, the biggest part of money coming out of unskilled (novices traders) is getting stacked in loopholes (banksters-brokers traps). It never reaches the skilled ones. This is a real lack of balance and even if it was declared crime after theXMadoff case, it still is at a large practise. So what the skilled are taking from the market is just a micro crumble from what reality is.
if you are trading the stock market....analyse stocks and buy those that out perform or a strong wait for a big fall and enter those stocks which fall the least. when 9/11 struck my only stock was Dr Reddy labs-the whole market fell 70%, Dr Reddy fell 1%
your experience is really sad....i know where you are coming from....luckily most transactions are not fraudulent ...but there can be no doubt that there is a lot of misleading going on or just plain misunderstanding of the market which many unscrupulous brokers cum bankers exploit
So nice to see you here again, dear God! Thank you. Well, truth, but sadly I do believe that for now fraudulent practise of not placing trades to the exchanges are still be very large. This may also explain why so many were aggressive even here, on my my thread - they are money managers or employee, enjoying fruits from this illegal luck of balance. Their time is over, the machine is just slow .
Remember you get a BO or spike that has no PB’s (a pb being defined as a low that goes below the low of the prev bar). That spike eventually transistions into a channel. That (the channel)is pretty easy to identify because that is when the pb’s start. As the channels moves higher or lower (depending if bear or bull) it eventually starts getting some sideways movement..DT’s...triple tops...DB’s..triple bottoms etc then you are in the beginning of a range. Once i see 13 to 20 bars of sideways to slight down or sideways to slight up moves I am starting to think this is acting more like a range and not a PB in the form of a bear or bull flag on the TF I am seeing this PA occur. Once it reaches 20 bars of such movement I am calling it a range. Once it becomes a range it is easy to see it actually started in the last part of the channel phase. But until it proves out to be a range it can appear to be a flag in a trend. Now once it shows to be a range the the tactic is shorting at the 1/3 top and going long at the 1/3 bottom until the whole process repeats with a successful BO or spike down or up out of the range. I will average down in ranges. For instance, price gets close to the top 1/3 i will begin shorting. If it keeps going up I will add to my losing position. Same on the bottom end of the range. Why would i do this as it is breaking what many consider a cardinal rule in trading i.e. “never average down”. I do it because the odds favor price will trade right back into the range. When it doesn’t and a successful BO occurs and I now really have a losing position then i will dump it and double in the direction of the BO OR I will bump up to a incremental larger time frame (maybe 15 min or 30 min to check and see if the BO in the smaller TF ( 5 min) is just a bull or bear leg in the larger TF range. If I calculate that I can hold my losing position (on the smaller TF) and just keep averaging down based on the higher TF range and all is with my risk levels then i may choose to do that knowing that price when it reaches the top or bottom of the larger TF will probably reverse back down i to the range of the higher TF. Another thing to consider. What is a flag on say a 5 minute TF is probably a range on a 1 min time frame and can be traded as such if one is nimble and can make quick decisions. Or what is a flag on a 15 min range is probably a range on a 5 min. And the flags on the larger TF can actually just be a pb in that TF that will lead to another leg in that TF that is found to be within a range of that larger TF. Consider this: channels are just slanted ranges. As such they can be shorted at the top and traded long at the bottom. And also averaged down...About 70% of the time BO’s of a channel fail and price goes right back into the channel. Pretty goods odds eh? Eventually, a BO will succeed and if a trader finds he is on the losing end dump it and double in the direction of the BO OR as in ranges bump up to an incremental larger TF and observe what it there. Is price in a range and the channel on the smaller TF is just a leg in the larger time frame and holding and even adding to ones losing position still within ones risk level? Finally, remember this: all bull channels are bear flags on a larger TF and the odds favor bear flags evolving into a BO south. All bear channels are bull flags on a larger TF and odds favor the BO being north! Read all this again and think about it! Now the crazy part. Markets are always, at all times, in a BO...a range...a channel. On some time frame. It is a matter of knowing how to trade those market phases within ones risk level and how to identify those phases. And of course the deeper pockets one has one can trade the higher TF’s and average down more. Averaging down certainly has to be within ones financial capability and done on a TF one can afford to trade.