I've heard about Trader Ed before... impressive track record in impressively liquid markets. Two weird things about this story are why someone making that much in FX and ES would like to sell education for $50 or how much is that and why trade size is just 4 contracts?
I honestly think it comes down to psychology - not everyone has the mind to risk tens of thousands per trade, so it's easier to start a subscription service and trade a comfortable size while making live calls (and leaving enough liquidity for the subscribers). I've had a few really good subscription services over the years where the guy banks $500-10k per win, though the larger ones are intermediate term and spend a few months growing. You, on the other hand (location: siberia) might have the nerves to play the big stakes. They say Russians make the best horse traderz..... they also fight the craziest :eek:
Let's see... why do trader's fail? I'd say it's pretty damn obvious. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://swf.tubechop.com/tubechop.swf?vurl=5j2F4VcBmeo&start=69.63&end=93.64&cid=2450890"></param><embed src="http://swf.tubechop.com/tubechop.swf?vurl=5j2F4VcBmeo&start=69.63&end=93.64&cid=2450890" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
But seriously, IMO stress of trading "big stakes" is overrated. If one successfully trades 4 cars a clip, what stops him from trading 5 the next week? Then 6 etc.? Change in risk per trade is negligible in that case and those markets won't ever notice the difference (even NQ easily swallows 30-50+ cars without much slippage). I am not attacking, just trying to understand...
What could stop a profitable trader from increasing position size ? 1) Violation of some money management rule they've been using that has helped them to become profitable in the first place. Simply, they want to continue sticking to the trading plan until they their money management rules tell them is OK to increase position size via a specific number. My point, one doesn't just increase position size for the sole reason that he/she is a profitable trader. 2) Trading instruments like Emini NQ, you can't push 30-50 contracts per trade 24/7 (as in any time of the day). Simply, some traders get trade signals in very slow volume and very slow volatility periods. They know this is not a time to try to push position size like what you have used as an example unless they don't mind dealing with the slippage issues or worst. Example, please go push a 50 contract Emini NQ trade in a single trade position at 3am est on most trading days...let me know what your fills are like. 3) Never underestimate trader psychology for the typical discretionary retail trader (those not using automation trading). It is very real and a pain in the butt for "most traders". In fact, for many its one of the primary obstacles to why they are not profitable. Heck, you yourself have discussed issues in your own trading here at Elitetrader.com involving the "psychological element" that impacts your trading. Thus, I believe you fully do understand and that you know its not "over-rated" based upon your own trading experience you discussed in the past. Thus, most typical retail trader do experience a great deal of emotional issues, discipline problems, inability to follow a trading plan, over trading, under trading, not waiting until properly capitalized...it all falls under the umbrella of "trade psychology" because the key element will never change. YOU are the key. 4) Markets do notice when someone has a change in risk but we aren't talking about retail traders. Markets notice such in its key participants...those that actually moves the markets. P.S. I'm a strong believer that most traders are not suitable for trading...before they take that first trade. The psychological variable impacts too many other variables in a trader's trading plan. Thus, its so very underrated...has always been and always will be.
Wowzee-wow-wow... You got someone mentoring here for free and offering a method that can be applied to as little as a week's worth of charts and demonstrate its ability to produce consistent profitability. And it's "Yeah but, why would someone do this for free, and how come his new students aren't killing it, and blah, blah, blah..." You got me sharing and illustrating just about the same method, but a bit more conservative version of it with pictures of how it looks at the hard right edge (not much of that in the trading books), (plus I was offering to mentor anyone who asked me for help, and not one person completed my assignments). And it's "Yeah but that's all hindsight analysis and you're hiding the losers in those hindsight charts, and why would you give away your edge if it worked, and blah, blah, blah..." Now you got Trader "watch me trade live right in front of you every day, see my long term time-stamped record of success with miniscule risk" Ed. And it's, "Yeah but, why isn't he trading SIZE?" I do love this site, but I'm simply so ultra-buzzed from sheer astonishment at the conversations here that I need to enter rehab for a while. XXXOOO Noddy
I agree with your points with few notes: 1) I assume one increases size when it obviously fits in rules. Say always risk 2% of account and add another contract when it will make risk per trade 2% (as account grows). 2) Indeed I only assumed trading within the natural limits of liquidity. For markets like ES and 6E almost 24/5 there are basically no liquidity issues for a retail trader. 3) While being psychologist myself I must say that the best cure from almost every psychological issue in trading is having a solid edge with clear and objective criteria. Everything is extremely hard and like in a grey fog until one finds it and suddenly gets very easy when he/she does. Speaking from personal experience and experience of several traders I observe every day.
Now, question for the psychologist : why people trade real money without having a solid edge with clear and objective criteria?
Well, this time it was me, so have to explain. I perfectly understand why one person would help another person for FREE. That motivation of personal sympathy looks perfectly logical to me. Most likely not in format of public thread targeted to help strangers, but personal friendly help. But I really hardly understand why would anyone consistently profitable in ES sell education courses for $50 and keep trading 4 contracts...