Again I wouldn't expect you to know. You don't have either the experience or sufficient knowledge. While futures markets in themselves are zero sum games day by day, they are not so for the activities of the participants. Hedgers or arbitragers in a futures market don't require a profit in that market if the equivalent is otherwise saved on the physical commodity or in another market. This is not to say that funds for example don't take some big hits when they get it wrong. But immense gains are lifted from commodities markets through investment bank trading; you don't know that is your answer. However I've always considered it possible for the 'start-out' amateur with careful thought and with the needed qualities to become very successful. But good luck with whatever you are trying to do.