So I ran some simple moving averages on Excel. Just simple moving averages. Like on SPY. But I tested everything from like 2 day moving averages (lulz) through 300 day moving averages. All the numbers sucked versus just buy and hold. Way worse upside, and the max drawdown was barely reduced. It didn't matter the period. HOWEVER, then I found a flaw in my equations. I had a < when it should have been a >. So... AHA! I had been testing like the REVERSE of moving averages, by when spot dropped below it, sell when it went above it. THAT'S why the numbers sucked! I was going to fix it and the numbers would truly be great! Only, I fixed it, and the numbers still sucked. Which perplexes me much. If markets trend, how can moving averages (and their reverse) suck so bad? Here is the best I can come up with: Stock prices, on average, move up over time. Thus, despite whatever the trend is, the stock is likely to go up the next day. For every day you are out of the market that is, on average, upside you are losing out on. Is that the answer? Or why are they so bad? Thanks!!!