Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by Rahula, Feb 21, 2008.


  1. that's for sure!

    :D
     
    #611     Nov 2, 2008

  2. You are talking about such trivial stuff. Yes, computers generate pseudorandom numbers, not completely random. The algorithm takes in a seed number, which defines starting state. Random seed is usually taken from computer's clock. So basically, chance of getting equivalent series of pseudorandom numbers is virtually zero.

    Even if it's pseudorandom, so what? There are hardware random number generators. You would get the same results with them anyway.
     
    #612     Nov 2, 2008
  3. Why do you constantly talk shit about other traders' methods when you don't even trade?

    The people are obviously making money trend-following. Who gives a shit if they can "predict" the market? The goal is to make money. Period.

    Traders are paid for the ends not the means.
     
    #613     Nov 2, 2008
  4. . . . and others will expand their last breath trying to disprove what that can't comprehend.
     
    #614     Nov 2, 2008
  5. EPrado

    EPrado

    LOL.....


    It really is killing you. Yeah...guys like Dunn and JWH who have been around for 25+ yrs are just guessers.

    Have you ever looked up the returns on people who have been with them all along? The returns are insanely high.


    Come on Surf.....you can say it.....

    "I was wrrrrrrrrrroooooooooonnnngggggg"


    Lets check the scoreboard on blowups:

    Neiderhoffer 2
    Trend Followers 0
     
    #615     Nov 2, 2008
  6. EPrado

    EPrado

    The best part is Smurf doesnt even realize that the last thing a trend follower tries to do is predict. They follow price action which gets them into/out of trades. They are reactionary.....not prediction makers.

    Obviously nothing works right all the time...but in this environment, trend followers are killing it. Like any trader, they have their ups and downs. SAC and others (who have had huge success) are on the downslope right now...they will be back. Trend followers like JWH are killing it now....and at some point they will see their returns slow down....making 20-40% a month is not something I think can go on for long periods of time.

    It's comical watching smurf talk about something he has no idea about...trend following.
     
    #616     Nov 2, 2008
  7. wish i could remember the paper on the study of market randomness i read would shut this up imma look for it
     
    #617     Nov 2, 2008
  8. Agreed.

    Smurf will jump and cheerlead all over the place to say how great of a trader Tim Sykes is, but yet he will talk shit about people like John Henry, etc.

    Just really..uhh...interesting.
     
    #618     Nov 2, 2008
  9. #619     Nov 3, 2008
  10. EPrado

    EPrado

    Marketsurfer my man...JWH's numbers just came out for Oct


    Up 15 to 38% across the board for Oct.


    YTD up 26 to 72% .


    Read em and weep !!!
     
    #620     Nov 3, 2008