A fixed probabilities distribution can created if the chart environment is layed out & set up consistently.
aligning one's self with einstein is simply too much, even for an ego like mine... pretty freaking funny! surf
I respect the theories of Einstein and that is funny to you. Amazing. You are a seemingly intelligent man that can't formulate or test original ideas for himself, so you ridicule others for their choice of higher psychological mentors, their determination in formulating new theories and their focus on discovering new problem solving formulas. How sad for you.
So this has me wondering, how do you profit from random movements/data? And where can I learn more about this subject? A lot of the links and .pdfs in this thread are confusing. I'm just finished up my first statistics course and this info is WAY beyond that.
What you have to understand is that the markets aren't random in the classical sense of the term or to be more precise they are non-linear systems that exhibit both apparent random and probabilistic behavior. If they were random in the classical sense of the term, consistent long term profitability significantly different than their random bias would be impossible. It isn't impossible, just very, very difficult and requires thinking outside the box. Below are a few links to get you started. http://www.turtletrader.com/chaos.html http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chaostheory.asp http://www.imho.com/grae/chaos/chaos.html http://www.zeuscat.com/andrew/chaos/ However you will find few published detailed how to explanations. The reason being that most who figure something out in terms of the markets tend to keep the details close to the vest for obvious reasons. I know someone who monitors published academic material on non-linear systems and computational approaches in dealing with them. Academics will periodically focus on the markets as they are sexy and exciting, at least compared to predicting the impact of pollution on fishery stocks. My contact told me about a researcher engaged in the financial area over some time. He would publish papers and lecture at academic conferences periodically over several years. Each presentation showed further progress in predicting future markets activity. About 3 months after a lecture that gave results significantly beyond what most here would believe possible, he stopped publishing and vanished from academia. The really interesting thing is that shortly after that the on-line versions of his research disappeared from places like cite-seer and others. This is odd behavior for an academic, as your professional reputation is built in part by what you publish and who chooses to distribute it. Did he discover something and not want to leave a trail of cookie crumbs for others to follow? It's impossible to know. Jerry030
Jack, Many thanks for an intelligent and though provoking post. At times this forum can be a bit like observing celibate clerics giving marriage consoling advice. It may seem to make some sense but in the end you know they havenât any domain experience. Jerry030
"Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?" Why not? Since you can't even define a trend, what makes you think it can't be generated by both random and non-random processes? The fact is, they are: generated randomly and nonrandomly. This would be obvious if you gave any serious thought to what a trend is. Your problem is that you conclude that because some trends occur randomly, then all trends must occur randomly. This is like saying that because I look up into the sky and see a hot air balloon or a helium balloon, that all objects I see in the sky must be lighter-than-air objects. It's illogical to jump to that conclusion. Some trends are random. Other trends aren't. The traders making the most money have figured out how to tell the difference.