man sometimes I wonder why I even post here. we have one guy saying he was one of einsteins students and taught in his zurich classroom. another guy is posting well known research by andrew lo of mit which is inconclusive at best. delusions run deep.... keeps the market machine well oiled.... surf
Do you have the skill to post something conclusive or offer a useful concrete suggestion or are you limited in skill to dismissive remarks only. If you don't like the thread I vote that you be permitted to leave it. All in favor? Jerry030
I have met Dr. Lo and am friends with many other quants and top money managers. I have spoken with and interviewed many of the top financial minds of the 21st century for my previous website and yahoo finance. Plus I have traded both as a hobby and professionally at times since 1990. Plus my associates have direct experience with 100's of traders who claim to have had edges via TA methods--- ONLY ONE was able to perform and it wasn't via TA. Everything you have used as defense of your belief has been addressed and dismissed many times in the past. these are my conclusions reached thus far on this journey... There is edge, one CAN make money in the market, but this has nothing to do if the market is random or not. surf ps. maestro speaks the truth here,as far as i can tell. i would suggest listening to him and reading " equity markets in action" for better understanding of how markets really work.
http://seneca.fis.ucm.es/parr/ see recent papers... Maestro, were you able to translate this to markets? It requires a pretty specific setup of the relative probabilities of the b events, if I interpret properly.
Perhaps this will inspire more discussions... Here's a great little calculator for Texas Hold Them... Given your two cards and/or 3-5 open cards on the table and number of players, it simulates poker hands up to 1 million times and gives out the probability of your hands being better than other players... So with that information, you can make an educated estimate of how much you should bet for a given situation....
You would be surprised to know how close you are to one of our most reliable strategies. The only difference is that a Poker game has a fixed probabilities distribution, where the markets do not.
Yes, I think 'the answer' lies in that I'm in the process of figuring out how to calculate the odds in my case.
Good for you! I believe you will succeed! Good luck! The answer is very simple and very reliable! Trust me!