Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Are your protective stops tight ot loose in relation to your ~expected (~average) outcome?

 

If you read the paper you'll see that the stops are part of the game. They are dynamic and are built-in to the main algorithm.

 

very good, thank you.

can you PM me information on the fund---i find your ideas worthy of further consideration. I am always looking for additional edge for our investors/partners.

best regards,

dave surf

 

Sorry, I cannot. I promised to the founders not to disclose anything beyond general scientific principles. It is not a public fund. It is a private enterprise. Sorry.

 

So what you are saying is that you take a bunch of small stabs and hold on to the ones that take? If so, sounds familiar.

(Please don't make me read your paper. The last time I took a statistics course was in the early 80s during my MBA studies. Since then I worked in banking before pursuing trading. Guess how many times I actually employed stats theory at the level you describe day to day. For the love of god, don't make me go there.)

 

isn't this the essence of what all retail traders are suppose to do?

surf

 

Your point being?

 

that your observation does not apply to dr. maestro---- but rather the reality on how traders without real edge are actually trading-- admitted or not.

brilliant statement, by the way.

surf

 

Oh? And why not? Recall what MAESTRO wrote: "...It only works well (no losing days at all) if you are involved in hundreds non-correlated games at the same time."

Clearly, if he is to be engaged in hundreds of "games" at the same time, he cannot be substantially committed to any one. Therefore, his risk per trade must be quite small in relation to his account equity. Further, if he must engage in so many trades/games at once in order not to have a losing day, then this suggests that the reliability is in the number of trades rather than the individual trades themselves. (Sound familiar, surf?)

Note, however, that MAESTRO's approach is markedly different than yours. You take very few trades and hold on to them irrespective of how much they go against you, adding to your position as they do.

 

Generally speaking you are right. And I won’t make you to read the paper! I understand! It's just I don't have any other real means of explaining the underlying science.