Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by Rahula, Feb 21, 2008.

  1. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    Of course it does! Any real time market info should influence our decision making process! However, using existing price "patterns" (like trends) to anticipate the future price behavior is naïve.
     
    #121     Feb 25, 2008
  2. . . . and a big difference between "Wild A$$ Guessing" and following a proven set of rules.

    I know there are individuals that make a great living trading the fundimentals.
    I know there are individuals that make money scalping and guessing at the market as well.
    Maestro you have no clue how my environment is structured mathematically so saying it is irrelevant is ignorant.
    I don't blindly tell either of those groups that what they do is "irrelevant" but yet I have people insinuate that what I do and have researched for over 12 years is. That is sheer ignorance.

    God forbid if you ever get sick again and your doctor comes in an says, Well sir, the ONLY thing we have that could possible save your life is this new heart procedure the Mayo Clinic has been testing for a few years with great success". And you look at the doctor and say, "Well doc, I'll guess I'll just lay here and die because I don't think that could possibly work because I know more than you do."

    Good luck to you and your health sir.
     
    #122     Feb 25, 2008
  3. Although I don't use price patterns per se, as I had noted earlier in this thread, and although I am of the opinion that most fo the stuff that passes for TA is worth little, I won't dismiss the notion that one man's meat is another man's poison, and vice versa. Of course, in the interest of longevity, that meat should be lean. (Lean as in simple, but not necessarily naive.)
     
    #123     Feb 25, 2008
  4. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    ProfLogic, I did not mean to offend you. I think you misunderstood my statement. I have never doubted that there are talented traders who can use their knowledge and experience to their advantage. I was trying to illustrate the phenomenon that was brought up by the original poster. If I some how offended you please accept my apologies. It wasn’t intentional. I am just using this thread to illustrate my opinion that by any means does not diminish your accomplishments.
    Happy Trading! And thank you for participating in this discussion.
    :)
     
    #124     Feb 25, 2008
  5. Okay, perhaps someone can do me a favor. I'm sure it has been done by others countless times before, but I am not sufficiently computer savvy to do this myself.

    Let's consider a new index, the Random 1000. We can start this index at a level of, coincidentally, 1,000. Each tick will equal one point. Can someone use a random number generator to generate one of three possible outcomes over and over again? Specifically, a one-tick rise, a one-tick decline, or no change in price. Kindly generate a couple of thousand "trades" and then plot the results on a line chart. Let's see what it looks like.
     
    #125     Feb 25, 2008
  6. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    Here are few charts of random generated market data
     
    #126     Feb 25, 2008
  7. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    here is the distribution curve
     
    #127     Feb 25, 2008
  8. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    and here are your actions :D
     
    #128     Feb 25, 2008
  9. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    And if you are tired of trying to spot a trend just relax and enjoy the random movements
     
    #129     Feb 25, 2008
  10. Those are fairly impressive oscillators.
    :D
     
    #130     Feb 25, 2008