I've created an excel file I call "random chart generator". The weird thing is that most of these charts look exactly like market charts and you can apply all kinds of TA tools like moving averages, and trendlines to these charts. If you don't believe me, see for yourself. Type in =RAND()*(-1-1)+1 into excel in column A. Then create a rolling sum of column A in column B. Then create a chart based on column B values and add a moving average. Now what to make of this? I suppose when most people see a 7,7,7,7,7,7 result in the lottery they see a 'trend' even though it is just as random as 23,42,11,14,33,8 lottery result - both events have an equal probability of happening. Now if the markets are random and the market closed up,up,up,up,up,up,up,up,up,up,up,up 12 days in a row - most people would likely be talking about it as a n-sigma event or a "black swan" even though it is just as unique and random an outcome as a up, up, down, up, down, down, down, up, down, up, down, down 12 day series of closes. Now doesn't a random market assumption mean that both mean reversion and trend trading strategies don't have any science to back it up and at the end of the day it all comes down to luck? I know, scary thread.