Nwose, There have been some very informed replies here, filled with good advice, and some that are not so helpful. Trading is a business, yet it seems that you have no plan or thought out (and tested) strategy. I think that you sincerely want some help, and want to succeed, so I'll tell you what I can- 1. Read Mark Douglas- start with "The Disciplined Trader". It is obvious that the metal side is a major area that you need help with. He is one of the best. 2. Create a written trading plan, complete with what market you will trade (trade only 1 for now), rules for entry, stops, exits, risk management, etc. You need to have it so detailed that you could convince someone to give you money to trade with- not some vague scheme. 3. Trade a sim or demo account, to prove to yourself that you have a positive expectancy method, and are able to run statistics on the trade data for at least 50 trades, before committing real capital. 4. Trade only 1 contract at a time, assuming that you have enough in your account for even that. Do this for a month, then review how you have done. You need to run a daily review of every trade, and look for a tendency to make mistakes. Even more important- you have to have a process in your trading plan to understand, and correct, mistakes. If not, you have a big case of self sabotage, and will fail. I hope that this helps a little- PM me if you wish. regards...Kevin
Also, become consumed and literally a master of just one futures contract...ES, CL etc ..become a specialist in one rather than knowing a little about a lot
Lemme see...you're trying to call the top of a market that does nothing but go up with 15 lots full margin and you're wondering if that's a good idea? Dude, you are programmed to lose. Do a little research on how the conscious mind programs the subconscious mind. And to those who want to criticize the existance, or lack thereof, of the subconscious mind and how it relates to trading go do some fucking research too.
He wants to know <b>why</b> he keeps losing. You ain't helping him out. He has to learn how to program himself to be a winner and how to stop subconsciously sabotaging his success. Judging from the initial post, I'd say the OP is a failure in many aspects of his life, not just trading.
Years ago, I would have said you're full of psycho mumbo jumbo. But after having been on this damn roller coaster for so many years, the correlations between trading and the rest of one's life are amazing to me.
BTW, OP, have you seen this? Expected return = (Probability of a win x Average magnitude of win) - (Probability of a loss - Average magnitude of a loss) Under estimate the former, over estimate the latter, allow for outliers, do this in your head every minute of every trading day, and then decide whether or not to take the trade. Patterns, guessing, doing what's comfortable, relying on others, (the list goes on and on) will feed other traders' children. Not yours. EDIT: Actually, I know some who are very good at trading patterns, but the equation still holds.
If you are disciplined in your life you will be disciplined in your trading. I've yet to see a person with a cluttered, unorganized desk trade successfully. The win rate at starting a successful restaurant are about the same as trading successfully. Some are naturally inclined; others have to be programmed properly to be successful. I fall into the latter category. By no means am I a natural winner. I have to work at it and that's why I find meditation, yoga, and using my conscious mind to program my subconscious mind so important. Trading is a subconscious profession. It's no different than playing baseball. You don't stop and think "ok, now I'm going to swing the bat." Your subconscious mind controls that. It's a reflex and so is trading. Unless you're wired right you're doomed to fail. Speaking from experience. I was a consistent loser when I started but I was smart enough to stand right next to the best in the business and keep my ears open and my mouth shut.
Hinting that he may need to try something else in life is helping him out much more than giving him some abstract reason why he is not succeeding. Seriously look at what this guy is trying to do. He is going back to the drawing board and trying to digest 29 different opinions and philosophies at once on an internet forum. If you have any mercy and empathy then you should advocate putting this dying dog down.
No way man! If I gave up after knocking my head up against the wall time after time I never would have made it. The OP's story is basically like mine. I kept trying the same thing expecting different results -- you know, the basic definition of insanity. It wasn't until I tried something completely radical, contrary to conventional wisdom that I started winning. The OP is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. He's at the insanity point of his trading experience. We all have to go through that. Successful trading is a right of passage. No one enters the game a winner. I went to school and studied computational finance. That's a fancy name for C++ merged with statistics all wrapped up in Finance, or trading as the case was with me. I quickly learned that the market is nothing more than one gigantic random number generator. When I began looking at the market that way the light bulbs went on. Sometimes little analysis is needed, like now. Just buy. Other times you gotta brush off the tools and put them to work again. Here's the secret to trading. The market is typically a non-stationary time series that has unit root problems and has to be analyzed using a modified ordinary least squares autoregression model -- it ain't as complicated as it sounds. However, under certain circumstances the market can be described as a trend-stationary time series with drift and no unit root problems. In other words, if we drift (correct) and there is no unit root problems the market will revert right back to the regression line or begin a new one in the same direction. Either way, you got a winner of a trade. If a unit root problem is present it will not revert. A new regression like will emerge but direction is unknown. That's the science. The art is knowing when we are switching from one condition to the other and for how long that switch will remain. That's where risk management comes in. Presently we're in a trend-stationary, drift market, which means buy every freaking dip the market offers you until there is a change in character or some significant news comes out to blow your models out of the water. Then you start from scratch. Sometimes you gotta do put your model to the side and do a complete data flush or pick a new starting point. Lots of trial and error. When you can look at the market like that you wouldn't even dream of selling 15 lots short on an upward trend-stationary market. Your success rate on that would be about the same as getting dealt a royal flush. Now, if you want to go trade a market that has constant unit root problems go trade the Oil markets. That's one fun market. The bond markets are more likely to be trend-stationary. You gotta know the behavior of the instruments you are trading.