I wonder why DE Shaw and Winton and Campbell and Crabel don't reveal their profitable strategies? Here in this thread I have learned that it would be harmless and insignificant to their own trading, but would provide them with the huge benefit of enhancing their spirituality and altruistic nature. A big deposit into the Universal Bank of Karma, as it were. Risk = zero, reward = large, therefore (reward/risk) = infinity. These guys are highly compensated professionals, experts in evaluating and exploiting reward/risk scenarios. Yet they still don't reveal their profitable strategies. I wonder why.
any method that is backtested and coded into a mechanic strategy can't be reveal because it can be duplicated and propagated thus you get more and more people drinking from exactly the same pool . The trick is in finding diff pool to drink from all the time.
=========== AEL: Most all share a pattern fragment; not a system., or thier top system Turtles were a notable exception; even then Curtis ''inflector '' Faith admitted it wasnt a top system by revelation time . Besides there is the personality factor; read ym journal , but traded ES.......
Crabel did share some excellant pattern fragments; wonder why Jack Schwager got some excellant fragments -interviews??? Because you give ; you get, thats why some give And few give away the company store in any business
when Wells Wilder revealed his pioneer technical analysis formulas, many people thought he was crazy to share these unbelievable discoveries. Many people went on to make millions using these formulas. Many people still lose millions, using the same formulas. Go figure.
Many profitable ideas for trade entry, trade exit, money management, monitoring the market, so-forth and so-on are presented within these threads. But it is up to the individual trader to actually go through the process of doing the work so he/she can mine those profits. JJ
In my humble opinion, a thread like this is proof that one should fade the crowd whenever possible. It's also easy to tell who has a real repeatable _system(s)_ Something that can be passed on to someone else and with only *reasonable* discipline this person can execute. In fact it can be programmed into a computer. The comment that there are universal market truths, which can be exploited in a number of ways, is very true. Those who figure it out can most likely continue to adapt if (when) forced. But.... why make life more difficult and risky when this is an already terribly difficult and risky business. I am interested in taking money out of the market as quickly and safely as possible. When I was unprofitable, I used charts. Not that all people who use charts are unprofitable, but I definitely was. I no longer use charts in any of my approaches. I suspect everyone on here who is "paranoid/delusional" such as myself does not use charts to make critical decisions, and are probably short term traders. I suspect that we will be < 5% of the people in this thread. I'm not concerned with most of you who lack discipline or want to play gambler instead of businessman. I am worried about one or two of you who have the discipline and have alot more capital than me To each his own. This has been a rewarding discussion to follow!
Lets say you are driving to work the same route everyday: As you approach a particular junction you have learned that if you switch lanes a little earlier than everyone else you get a jump on the next section of the road. After a few weeks of doing this, other drivers have noticed your tactic and you find that you no longer benefit from switching lanes as other drivers are already there in your slot. Seeing this, you carry on to the junction in the same lane and still get away ahead of the cars in the congested lane. Of course, if your driving style does not adapt and take into account what others are doing you just join the queue (following your previously winning, rigid rules) and fume because your journey now takes a bit longer. I'm just wondering what kind of edge it is that could not adapt to current market behaviour that includes this "edge".
Your analogy is incorrect. Trading is a different animal. In trading, people trade their own belief systems and personalities. Take a look at any woodie CCI thread as an example. There are hundreds of supports who claim this method is the best. But if you look closer, what do you see? * This person recommends changing the parameters to higher numbers. * Another claims success only after adding a custom MACD. * Still another believes it works but only in bonds. As he had no success in the indexes with this method. * Then you have the guy who only uses the CCI to confirm another "free Internet method". AND THESE ARE THE ONES THAT SAY IT WORKS. People will add or subtract from the information they are given in an attempt to make it their own. Hence no system will be traded the same by all people. Therefore, no system will be hurt through over exposure. The head and shoulders pattern has stood the test of time, yet almost every decent book on TA talks about it. If people were trying to "front run" the pattern and thus render it useless, would it actually still work? But everyone seems to be saying that "front running" is inevitable if a pattern, or edge is known. The fact that head and shoulders patterns remain viable, belies this assertion. As does a persons natural propensity to change a method to make it their own. And I have not even mentioned how people react to a loss. Do you really think everyone will take the next trade? What about after 3 consecutive losses? In truth, most traders would be on to the next thing. Successful traders are willing to take that next trade; because they believe in their edge. But the point of here is, even if you keep the method consistent, people still would not trade the same. Some will take the next trade after a loss, some will not. Some will immediately move on to the next thing. Some will start to tweak. Some will wait until two consecutive losses before taking an actual trade..... How people trade is as diverse as the people who trade.
What do you think of a stategy that, no matter what decision you make, if you correct it when you find it to be wrong, you will then be collecting a profit at the time of correction? To flesh out this question a little with a step by step: 1. You act and are in the market. 2. you observe the results of the position 3. you discover you need to correct your position. 4. as you do, you take a profit. 5. you observe the reults of the new position you have taken. This is the point that PointOne was making. It is called anti-whipsaw for any position taken. It is part of SCT trading. TIA