Pr0.... We are all really laughing over here.... I presume that T doesn't know who you are and what you do for the futures journal........he may be one of your readers.... regards, Jack
"If nobody "knew" about technical analysis, then it would be useless. " utter rubbish. it is absolutely true that some technical aspects of trading fall under the self-fulfilling prophecy thang. iow, if everybody thinks stock X is a good buy when supercalifragilisticindicator says BOO, then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy however... it is absurd to think the only reason why TA works is self-fulfilling markets are moved by supply and demand. TA helps you understand supply/demand inbalance and make profitable trades markets are moved by institutional and large traders. TA helps you ferret out instititutional action. support and resistance do NOT simply exist because people know about them. feel free to study some charts from over one hundred years ago. you will see the same basic chart aspects of supply/demand and support/resistance. support resistance levels form when traders take positions. traders often trade emotionally for instance, and want to get back to breakeven. if price is going down and then turns up at price area X, that means people are buying (paying up - the ask) and pushing the price from downward to upward. demand is exceeding supply. that offers "support". first of all, that price was deemed "fair" by market participants, second of all, there were traders on other side of the trade, some of whom went short at that level. when price returns to that level they can buy to get flat at breakeven etc. etc TA is the study of price. price is OPINION. personally, i avoid if at all possible, using TA techniques that retail traders use. because also, if too many traders use certain methods they do cease to be as effective. i want to be on the side of institutions and fade retail TA also helps me do that
whitster, Your response to the poster was very thoughtful. I saved the poster's contribution in word because it was a complex and unique compilation or summation. I had never seen that combination of elements as a descriptor of markets and their trading. Retail doesn't affect markets as you say. For me, it is possible that institution vs. institution is more what is going on than institution vs. retail. We do see a few institutions beating the "averages" and most not. Retail probably evens it up as retail probably is all over the place and mostly giving to institutions rather than each other. The T&S and the DOM depict the "show". I am rarely active (20 to 40 moments in a day) and when I am, I use TA to give me leading indicators of price and I am front running "smart money" by choice. In terms of Michael Kahn of Barron's Online, I am acting on his "warnings". This is a half cycle ahead of the bulk of the market "reversals" and definitely ahead of smart money and the institution parts of the herd. Retail never affects the market in the first place and the "minority" of the sides the institutions are taking in the PRESENT always controls by the absence of either supply or demand. The full range of profitable retail strategies, revealed or not, are insignificant in the flow of contracts in the market. Quants trade the anomolies of "noise" and may be just considered the "echos" largely of the noise. One of the paths from novice to expert that keys off the market's principles only, demonstrates that low risk high profit parts of the markets are the place to begin. Any intemporate timing performance here leads to additional small profits when corrections are applied. Having the anti whipsaw down as a novice is a terrific arrow for the quiver. Intermediate trading within the low risk high profit part of days, simply allows the intermediate to "step out" of low risk high profit times into the moderate risk moderate profit periods that follow. Here a combination of effectiveness and efficiency are at play. More is made (efficiency during low risk high profit periods and the additional time after these periods is captured as new trading opportunity (effectivenss of being in the market on the right side for a greater portion of the day). The rest of the market day can be done when a level of expertise is attained, since it is just a case of adding another level of sensitivity to institutional plays at that time. More and more, the institutions tend to "telegraph". These leading indicators of price add more and more comfort to the trader's operations during the day. It comes down to getting equipped to trade more and more of the time in a series of steps that allow the trader to participate according to two curves of consideration as a function of time in the market. One curve is the risk curve and the other is the profits available curve. On the left the curves are separated to an extreme. Risk is low and profitability is at it's peak. One moves asymptotically to zero (profitability) and the other moves asymptotically to total on the right. At the right they are again separated in the extreme. extremely high risk and absudly low profitability. A person must learn by going from the left to the right. It IS the definition of building upon success. Measuring the market at any time is the product of four repeated steps. A process of reaching closure repeatedly and adroitly. At all times a trader must know three things: price change, the right side of the market and that he is in the trade on that side. It is dealing with NOW and the screens displays. Collecting data sets that are SUFFICIENT; KNOWING the conclusion (CONTINUE OR CHANGE) that the data set depicts; being able to DECIDE using the specific conclusion; and acting then and there to bring closure to the routine's cycle. Having a display and an account is easy. Collecting data sets properly and sufficiently takes experience and a proper sweeping of the screens. KNOWING the conclusion is ordinarily a weakness because a routine is not being used to build the mind so it contains the finite conclusion set required. This aquisition is not understood in ET. for some reason people focus on rules and not on acquiring a quality conclusion set. It appears that there is a continuous quest to acquire rules even though people are told over and over that collecting rules is not going to be a workable way to become skilled in trading. Becoming skilled in trading is a direct consequence of performing a process. Quality conclusion sets are written up in the Wizard books in a very subtle way. They are also written up in processes done by people who are working. Drills give people conclusion sets as a consequence of doing drills. At first, a person does the conclusions for low risk high profit parts of the risk/profit chart. This is a coarse level of conclusions which are then subtended for the rest of the person's life. We plant seedlings in a pattern; a forest to have a forest in place. Making rules instead of building a forest; gives a person an inaccessable set of rules whose application is not possible when the demand is made. Collecting data sets over and over and over....leads to conclusions for the data sets as the CONSEQUENCES OF THE DATA SETS IS REALIZED. This is a mental drill. It is done in the context of the variables of the data set. Work is done to always have the context ANNOTATED as a drill. By making a context and realizing what is going on in the context a person is "batting" in the ball park. Mentoring is teaching people how to bat on the playing field. Rules are just the ball park on the other hand. Pick up the bat. Swing it. Learn to hit a fast ball. Learn to hit a curve ball. Learn to stand there when a "ball" is pitched. Learn to only swing at strikes that can get you on base. Big Leaguers know how to hit to stay on the team. When a batter can read the pitch, he can decide at all times during the trading day, just what to do each and every moment of he day. This is the third equities journal. There are 8 months of batting practice coming up on the futures this year. All are daily batting practice to go through the process of trading price change by being in the market all of the time and being on the right side of the market all of the time. Little league, JV, Varsity, AA, AAA big leagues. What you get is what you put into it. When you work you get a complete conclusion set that can be paired with ANY dataset at ANY time on ANY fractal in ANY market. The market is always right. The smart money telegraphs to everyone who wants to SEE. There are 17 leading indicators of the price that is traded. All these indicators may be collected in a four part routine. The financial indusry traditions where the conventional orthodoxy originated largely prevents people from chosing to make money. Try putting a conclusion from a data set in your mind. It is blocked by fear, anxiety and anger...... it cannot become even provisional when using a paradigm based upon gaming nad probabilites. The only thing that can get inside are rules that can be "played". Think of how hard it is to begin to build a fort (think of fort ticonderoga on lake George) all the way around the pieces of the conventional orthodoxy. It ain't going to happen, and furthermore the search for rules will continue instead. No one can teach anything. Teaching is not possible it turns out. But what is possible is doing purposeful work. Working for purposeful goals. Doing drills following a defined process is possible. What is gotten? Knowledge, skills and experience. BE DO HAVE. Decide to BE. In a moment, you ARE. You BE. The mind is a wonderful thing. It is unmatched anywhere. I'm only 74 and still growing my mind. I trade with sports memory. It is very humorous to watch. The great traders you have never met are so skilled that they are great and all that goes with that. Th PhD's here in ET are getting there and doing what I wrote above. Certainly they know by now that their prints are not possible to post. What if this post was able to affect a person? What would begin to happen? Well maybe the person could draw with a crayola on a chart the zigs and zags of 100 separate days. What would that do to open his mind during the crayola period. What doing a drill to learn how much money the market offers every day, day after day, do to a person's mind? It is conceivable to me that the 10,000 concious bits of info per second that he preceived migt do something. he would also learn how many charts a crayola can do. What about the 20,000,000 bits per second that went into his subconscious. This is called crayola payoff. I have in a single crayola stroke wrecked his mind for doing the conventional orthodoxy forever. A person annot sleep without subconsciously seeing all that money being zig zagged into a trading account. Baskets full at 50 contracts a zig or zag. The subconscious cannot denign the making of money. It just does it. Mak's expression for life is that, with respect to money, "it" is never EMPTY form that point on. no matter what time or place he is in he is never going to experience "empty". Money is always there to be made with money....more than ever imaginable. It is there... use the crayola backtest. crayolas say: All price change makes money Be in the market Collect each segment of profits by staying on the right side of the market at all times. Crayolas were invented for doing A B C's.
When you say "we" Jack... do you mean yourself and that poor successful woman you mooch off? http://www.lizsaxby.com/new/lizsaxby/content.asp?contentid=2016262207 LOL
Well well well... looky here Spytrader quote about Jack and his method from Trade2win forum: "Actually he just quit trading because he couldn't make any of it work." - Spydertrader http://www.trade2win.com/boards/arc...hp/t-13625.html
I appreciate you once again revealling the quality of your character. Please, do continue to make shit up as you go. - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1371740>
No, he means himself, the successful woman, and about 8 people in a private chat room that couldn't decide whether they were laughing at you out of absolute pity or out of sadistic amusement :eek: :eek: Oh, I'll admit it... I do enjoy a little internet drama every once in awhile. Thanks for providing me with some amusement, T280. Cheers.