wow, that wasn't a boring story, just short enough to be relevant, thanks for sharing, and 98% failure... add in the 3rd reason and we push that percentage up to 99.3% of the reason most traders fail: 1) dumb luck, in early success instead of trained discipline success 2) arrogance of early success instead of a level headed approach (read humility) 3) inadequate risk management in stopping losing streaks, controlling winning streaks and handling the in-between times
Well said. Here is a quote........ "There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure." --Jesse Livermore So, you need to ask yourself a question.... with all the selling in the market currently, who are the ones buying stock that is being sold? If you look very closely, you will find those that are buying now are the same that were selling at higher prices when most were eager to buy. Once you can answer that question, you will be on your way to profiting in the stock market.
You clearly do not understand how equity markets work. "Stock" is nothing but an item on a shelf. It is not a contract between 2 partys. It it not a zero-sum transaction. "Stock" can be held in "inventory" indefinately! Market-makers and specialists carry net positions consisting of longs and/or shorts (no mistake, and/or). Money making strategies by those participants, for the mostpart, are the exact opposite of your opportunities as a "retail" buyer or seller.
because making money is difficult. Traders are a minority in the population and if 98% of these traders made money, the rest of the population would give up their jobs. Money management is not easy, people can't handle the volatility of stocks.
Since we know that most new trader fail, it would be interesting to develop a system that enters the exact opposite positions of a group of new losing traders. Such an experiment might make $ and answer the question.
You are correct about the specialist and market makers, and I said nothing about them nor a zero sum game as in the futures markets. Keep thinking about.... "who is buying" now. Once you discover that then you will become profitable.
Who is buying now? Very interesting question. Let me try to guess. Basically these people should believe that the price will rise in their trading/investing horisont. These may be some of the following groups: - Traders/investors who try to fade the down move; - Some scalpers; - Fundamental investors who believe that these prices are bargain prices and it worths buying; - People with free money who want to invest them; - Gamblers; - People with mechanical systems whose parameters flash buying. - Some insiders it may be; - Some other groups; What is the clue about this?
I thought about it... Clearly you don't understand the equity market. When YOU stop viewing the equity market through retail-eyes, THEN *YOU MIGHT* become consistently profitable. There is little doubt as to which side of thread-title percentage you live. Alas, so much mis-information given as gospel here. It's a shame.