Why do 5% of Traders Win?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by oldtime, Feb 18, 2012.

  1. Lucias

    Lucias

    I concede this thread. Between NoDoji making 1,000% per year and EMG claiming you need 500k to trade 1 contract And Bhardy who doesn't know what the notional value of his contract means even after I explained it.

    Before I was angry.. now I'm just perplexed. Happy to concede.
     
    #311     Feb 24, 2012


  2. For fork sakes, would you please shutup??!!! I consider this whole ignore option to be childish, but in your case, you're nothing but spam.

    [You are my first ignore]
     
    #312     Feb 24, 2012
  3. Lucias

    Lucias

    I think that's your first good idea I've heard from you.. I will also take this action.

    EMG you're on my ignore...

     
    #313     Feb 24, 2012
  4. Bhardy is not trading futures. I don't understand why this is hard to comprehend. He uses the UK arm of fxcm, and they let their users trade gold and oil for miniscule amounts. It isn't something I would do as I assume you are trading against fxcm in those markets. Any good, consistently profitable SCALPER can do what NoDoji does. She doesn't consider herself special either. Drop the ego.
     
    #314     Feb 24, 2012
  5. Exactly, but no you aren't trading against FXCM.

    Lucias,

    If it is true that a standard oil contract pays, $10 per 1cent change, then the notional value of an oil contract is $10 X 100 X Current price of oil. Atleast, that's how I chose to think about. I really only care about the cost/benefit per unit change.

    About $109, 084 if I can use my CFD as reference price.
     
    #315     Feb 24, 2012
  6. dv4632

    dv4632

    He was my first ignore too! :p

    "5% win. They just win!" LOL
     
    #316     Feb 24, 2012
  7. @bhardy307

    Contract size of CL is 1.000 barrels WTI.
    So at the current price the value of one CL contract is about 110.000 $.
     
    #317     Feb 24, 2012
  8. Yes, I understand that. The $10/unit (getting closer to 9$, now) change results as a consequence of the 1.000 barrels. 1000 barrels/Price per barrel. Or is it reasonable to think about it in this way?
     
    #318     Feb 24, 2012
  9. Lucias, I used the gold comparison for the following reason.

    Though 1 contract of oil may be 1000 barrels, 1 contract of gold for me is only 1 ounce of gold.

    In terms of unit change, the contrast is this:

    $10/$.01 change of oil, VS $1/$1 change of price of gold.

    I am telling you, that I, with my very limited experience, can earn $15/day trading 1 gold contract. Assume 240 trading days in a year. Thats $3600. So trading 1 contract, I can generate the equivalent of 2 ounces of gold in one year.

    So, if I can generate that much, why do you believe that NoD can't generate the equivalent of 900 barrels, trading 1000 barrel contracts at a time?

    You were suggesting that the most she should be able to generate should be between 200 and 300 barrels. So, extending that logic, you are telling me that I can only generate 20 to 30% of an ounce of gold???
     
    #319     Feb 24, 2012
  10. emg

    emg

    Here is an interesting article from prestige school University of California, Berkeley (HIGHER EDUCATION) did a study traders just lose.


    http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf




    On average, individual investors lose money from trading. Barber and Odean
    (2000) document that the majority of losses incurred at one large discount broker in the
    United States can be traced to trading costs. However, trading costs are not the whole
    story. On average, individual investors have perverse security selection abilities; they buy
    stocks that earn subpar returns and sell stocks that earn strong returns (Odean (1999)). In
    aggregate, the losses of individuals are material. Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean (BLLO,
    2009), using complete transaction data for the Taiwan market from 1995 to 1999,
    document that the aggregate losses of individual investors exceed two percent of annual
    Gross Domestic Product in Taiwan.
    Recent



    Recent research documents that a host of variables (e.g., IQ, cognitive abilities,
    geography, portfolio concentration, age, and past performance) reliably predict crosssectional
    variation in performance.1 But even the most skilled stock pickers in these
    studies are unable to deliver a return that covers a reasonable accounting for transaction
    costs. Thus, it remains an open question whether some individual investors can profit
    from speculative trading.
     
    #320     Feb 24, 2012