You should look at the long term trend, but you should also understand the big picture, and look at the most recent trend. The dollar has broken out strongly, is now making higher highs and lows. It has more strength now against EVERY major currency than its had since 2005. The likelyhood is that the recession is turning into a global thing, and so even though the US will not be raising rates, neither will anyone else. The Dollar is no longer in a bear market., and just blindly following a "trend" is a way to insure that you don't do nearly as well as you could, and you will likely at some point end up out of the game.
I want to make one thing clear from this post, a few of my recent posts might make it seem as though I think a trend is not important. Thats not true, its one factor to look at, but I think its not much more important than other factors, its just one thing to take into consideration.
this new trend has been established in just 1 week?Why is everyone jumping on the bandwagon?A rebound in oil this week or whatever other excuse will just wack the dollar again.
I agree, I am out of oil for now (I have been since the 130's), but I still think the trend is still up. 200 here we come.
You say change of trend I say dollar bull trap. Whats your time frame? The short term trend for the dollar has been up, however I still think that it still has lots of room to go south. Only time will tell, I'm a buyer when it starts to go up again.
Make no mistake about it . . . If the Russians gain control of the BTC pipeline, this will ultimately help them control the flow of oil into Europe. This pipeline was built by a consortium of parties to CIRCUMVENT the Russian grip on oil to Europe. It sure looks like this could very well be the REAL motive for their assault. Moreover, control the BTC and you also wind-up exerting much better control over the former Soviet satellites.
It didn't "affect" oil because oil is in a bear trend. 2 months ago this would have sent oil up $10. It did cause the Ruble and the Russian stockmarket to collapse. Possibly helped the dollar rally too.
see i do think oil was affected. it was down less then other commodities last week. oil could of been lower if it was not for this war. whos to say has to be up. just not down as much. everyone says there is a $10-20 war premium built into the market. if that is true why should oil then go up?