R U under a rock? I made close to 1000 PIPS on my trade selling the EUR/USD since July 22. That is a big move. I understand people not believing it when I forecast it on my blog and here on ET and other forums But that there exist people who still not believe it after the fact is an enigma to me.
From a Dartmouth professor... "But a war between these two countries would threaten ... the booming exports of Caspian energy through Georgia" I am surprised it didn't affect the markets as well. I will be watching closely Monday morn.
I think the geogia battles did have an impact on the markets. Equities and the dollar rallied while oil plunged.
You think maybe people are thinking that battles would take a break during the Olympics? Guess not, seems to be escalating, an (unsuccessful) attack on the BP pipeline was mentioned in the last article I read.
...Unsuccessful... The russians do not get it. You got to hit that pipeline if you want oil price to go up. Bombing next to it, and saying we missed it does not cut it. So far the market called their bluff right, and read the russians correctly. Russians are not market smart (so far).
"rallied"? This shows that your mental view has the dollar in a bear market. The dollar is in a bull market! it started when I shorted EUR/USD (in the 1.60 area).
The problem is, is that the countries of the Caspian Sea region are relatively MINOR world oil and nat-gas producers, who are still struggling with difficult economic and political transitions. I would guess that the region's oil production ( Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc ) is somewhere around 2.3 million bbl/d, which is comparable to the annual production of Brazil. The Baku-T'bilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that runs from Baku Azerbaijan via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan is roughly 1,000 miles and is what makes GEORGIA strategic.
The Market did re-act but not the way you wanted it to. Money flowed into America and out of Europe. The Dollar and the Stock Market shot up as money is transferred into America where it is safe and out of Europe where war is starting.