Why did trend following work well in commodities in 1970s but lost effectiveness later?

From Monday September 5, 2016:

This thread belongs in the forum for Politics & Religion.

 

In order to profit from trading and investing, prices must trend. This includes selling option premium. Trends exist in every trading/investing vehicle. Always have, always will.

 

I guess the reason is that trend following got harder to trade after the 1970s. This is why even the Father of the Turtles faltered even though some of his Turtles continued to do well. You would have done well if you were one of his Turtles.

 

Past trend is not important.
What is important is: what made this trend start? There are many factors that have influence on whether a trend will develop or not. You should analyze these factors behind the trend, not the trend himself.

 

You must read Fooled By Randomness because you are fooled by randomness.

 

...and lose money in the last 7 years inflation and rates are low. You are fooled by randomness.

Covel is a remnant of the 1980s.