There is a big difference in being bearish on the economy, from the standpoint of discussing things of economic interest, and trading. In fact, one could argue they have nothing in common.
I love how a lot of Americans even here are more willing to say that other peoples markets are going to crash before them than actually admit they're fu**ed. You'd think that people who had been watching the economy for so long would know about taking a loss. America to me just seems like they are conforming to the typical 'spoilt brat' stereotype I've come to call them out on with the majority of them. If Japan's new party sticks to it's policies and does actually move away from the dollar then it will probably do far better than even the European countries or the UK. In fact even the UK are doing better than the Americans right now because we've actually bothered to take on the debt and pay it off instead of continue this pathetic bailout charade. Sticking to denial and not doing anything is the fastest way of merely encouraging the disaster about to happen. Look at what happened to Germany for fu**s sake. The more they printed the people ended up giving themselves up to the Nazi's so they could be prosperous again. I'm not saying that's going to happen in America, it's too uncertain what's going to happen now but it most assuredly won't be anything good.
unlikely to happen when there are resource rich countries and easy to cow like Brazil, Argentina or Iraq
If you owe money on your home or car and suddenly cannot make the payments, you can lose your home or car and any equity you have in them. If you read all of the fine print in your loan papers (which no one does), there may be some other surprises as well. If there is major financial upheaval in this world, you will be safest not owing anyone anything.
Time to diversify out of US Dollars. http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/2009/09/090904_srodes_dollar.shtml
................................................ Many countries face the common items of this economic predicament.... All of them seem to have been in the mode that real estate prices are justifiable ....because everybody is going along....now everyone is going along as the economy goes along.... Like any other "family income" predicament....it is best to find a sustainable solution.... rather than just spending via dilution.... The issue being is that this will be a 20 year+ process.... In simple speak.... What has happened....and what will happen is this.... If everybody has $20....they have $20 to spend.... If in a short period of time....everybody has $10....then they have $10 to spend.... What does this mean ? LOWER PRICES across the board.... This is the inevitability.... ............................................... Prices will rule the day as to capabilities....not the previous prices of past amortization needs.... Thus the transition to "at some price it works.... ............................................. ie Electric cars ? What will an individual elect to do when the price of an electric car is 2X a non electric car....? Price will always rule the day.... ................................................ The US as will other countries ....need to restructure taxes in general to take the least amount per person....that leaves the smallest effects on prices.... This is one of the few remaining tools in the govt. toolbox that is capable of forming sustainable price lead solutions.... Govt.s have to dramatically downsize in every way....if their economies are going to be competitive globally.... The US tax take needs to dramatically drop below BRIC's rates....because of BRIC's low legal and labor barriers....
libertad wrote "The US tax take needs to dramatically drop below BRIC's rates....because of BRIC's low legal and labor barriers...." Part of the problem is the conflict between those two... Our labor costs are about to plummet due to deflation and mechanization (think robotically produced goods), yet our legal costs continue to rise. Sooner or later, unions will cease to exist due to simple supply and demand, yet tort reform seems millions of years away...
It would be a complete waste of your time and resources to pay off debt when the world is collapsing. There's absolutely no reason to do so. I also wouldn't suggest loading up on gold and silver. It will be completely worthless in the post-apocalypse. Guns and ammo would be far more valuable. Gold and silver are just shiny metals.