The odds are against everyone. The odds were against George Washington too. Grow a pair of balls and commit to trying this or not. And if it doesn't work out, try something else.
Ah I see myself ten years ago...so naive in how the market works... You sound smart. So now add 10000 hrs of face time with the markets and just might make it.
First of all, when I see someone writing such long stuff, I know his mind is confused. It usually takes a few sentences to express a complex idea. But your mind is meandering through an endless maze. You are mentally disturbed. Second, you want to pose a question, but the title of your thread indicates the opposite: "Why can't you.....?" You have already decided that one "can't" do it. Then why bother asking the question? You are not asking the question, you are giving your opinion disguised as a question. Finally, is Corzine a pro? Your basic assumption is wrong!
Well depending on which pro's you are referring to, this may or may not be much of a challenge. I have spent some time on the Bogleheads forum and they often think of mutual fund managers as "the pro's". They are professional but generally not traders, and there is quite a difference. Another common misconception on the Bogleheads forum is thinking that because profitable trading is difficult, it is impossible or should not be attempted. Profitable trading is very difficult. Studies have shown that the majority lose, but studies have also shown that a not insignificant minority outperform consistently. Although it may be difficult to join this minority, it can be very worthwhile. Some advantages the little guy has: - No prospectus trading restrictions - No investors making deposits/withdrawals at inopportune times. - Can take on the risk of under performing the market, that many pro's cannot. - Can focus on trading, not on raising capital, satisfying investors, etc. - Small traders can be nimble, getting in and out quickly in volumes that do not move price. - Can trade smaller stocks that many professionals can't, without moving the price. - Can choose not to trade when the opportunities are not favorable. Some reasons most will never make billions, or even millions: - Successful trading is very difficult - Scalability problems - Changing edges. Profitable methods don't necessarily work for ever, or even years. Profitable traders have to adapt to changing markets, and this is every bit as hard as being profitable in the first place. - Changes in risk tolerance. In my trading I specialize in small stocks. I trade in stocks that those with larger accounts cannot without incurring significantly higher slippage, so right off the bat my competition is somewhat limited. Further I use a professional caliber tool that gives me a significant edge over many individual investors. A drawback is that these strategies have significant limitations on their scalability. When most people look at stocks/charts, they see their own projections of hope, greed, and fear. I approach it from an objective point of view and trade when the odds are in my favor.
In general the longer the time frame and the further the stop loss point from entry the more scalable the system. This is because you will have more time to build a large a position. This does not mean it will be the most profitable system based on risk to return, only it will be able to handle the largest amounts of money. So trading becomes less and less profitable in % return terms as your account grows but it continues to become more profitable in $ terms, because your bet size continues to increase.
Taxes on that 40%, plus living expenses, along with booze, broads, and bullshit. Then you have periodic drawdowns and losing months/quarters or even years. In the end you might retain 10-20% of the 40% return, to add to your balance on an average year. That's why many go the managed funds route, or eventually wash out of the game.
And don't forget that even if you increase your capital by 10% nominal you may still not come out ahead given the money printing binge around. Beating the fake CPI is no good you need to stay ahead of the true inflation.