Good call spike , I went short at 1216 ,H/S on 60 chart with a down slope was good confirmation to get in early on the move,I use 60 ,10, 5,
Hello Hank. Can you take a look at the price action of the Tokyo Stock Exchange 2nd section Index from early 2003 onwards. By my definition there were two clear trends there - can you examine the data and see if they would qualify under your tests?
There is no such thing as "reasonably accurate" efficiency. 99.9% efficiency is inefficiency, since the state has changed from one where profit is impossible (100% efficiency) to one where profit is possible (<100% efficiency). Your claim is like saying someone is "almost a virgin".
I throughly enjoyed reading every single post in this thread and I'm fascinated by the entire discussion. I've come away with the following preliminary conclusions: Need to give more weight to volume in determining trend strength or it's reversal and not using it alone but with other factors. Time is also extremely important. Adaptive MA's could help point the way. When something is in motion, it tends to stay in motion, at which a point comes when last majority crowd on the ride causes an opposite reaction. Trends do exist and when they are present they affect future price action, increasing it's predictability. I think the major difference that exists between the approaches presented here is detecting the shift in trend the quickest, increasing return.
it is ok to trade against the trend. Just know be quick in and quick out. Take small gains, and never trade without a stop. If you do trade against the trend, sell where everybody else is selling. For me, es, overnight high, high of yest, high of last week, or obvious support resistance areas. For buys of course, do just the opposite. Have a great day. Keith