No jab intended Nickel. I just thought about a funny response to this and this thread needs a little humor. If the water doesn't extend over ones toes, then it's quite hard to practice the back stroke . . . so find more water. Oh, I agree with your statement too.
Trend exits when the big fishes enter with their contracts. Rest of the time price moves between support and resistance. In the beginning all price actions look same from s/r and triangles. So, no one can predict where price is moving. So, you take educated guess with game theory and pray that it goes your way. I agree there are nuances to recognize trend correctly, and you can master it with experience. Strictly discretionary traders can do that with times, computerized traders cannot. Its called instinct.
Looks like you must be an expert in computerised/ automated trading for quite some time to recognise that. Are you so sure?
Hi ktm, You are right if you start from the a priori assumption that "the Trend" (for markets) is a well defined mathematical entity. No need to talk about improbability, physical or not. It suffices to write down an expression for it. Nobody did this I believe. You could perhaps say that "the Trend" is a moving average, specifying the kind and its parameter(s). In fact you would very close where you wanted to go with the above. Nobody dared to do this up till know, because people might say that he "doesn't know how to trade." Keeping "trend finding" in the "star gazing" domain is generally thought to be more respectable. In the meantime, nononsense will keep laughing at "the Trend", especially at the truly crazy and pompous stuff. (ktm, I don't put you in this category) nononsense
I'd like to continue with the statement, but the current prototype- i'm near finishing, beckons my attention. I'm anxious to complete it. Should go well... Structure is well enough crystalline. Shooting for next week. cia Ktm'r
thank you for the formulation. i'll pass your post along to one of my more erudite colleagues for comment. best wishes !!