Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Flashboy, Mar 10, 2005.

  1. I thought I read their main coverage is through private plans???
     
    #391     Mar 15, 2005
  2. I would be interested if someone knows for sure to post it. I would ask my daughter, she would know for sure, but she's on vacation.
     
    #392     Mar 15, 2005
  3. If I couldn't trade what I thought, then I couldn't trade what I see.
     
    #393     Mar 15, 2005
  4. jsp326

    jsp326

    Hank,
    Just checking once again...where's the website with your real-time track record? Thanks.



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quote from hank rollins:

    my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.


    your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.
     
    #394     Mar 15, 2005
  5. jsp,

    Your question is certainly not unreasonable but goes squarely against the etiquette and traditions of our cherished ET.

    Be good,
    nononsense
    :D
     
    #395     Mar 15, 2005
  6. jsp326

    jsp326

    I see.. I guess it could be considered free advertising?

    Maybe he'll PM me with the info. I'm not interested in being a subscriber/customer of his, I was just curious.

    But when you turn down a challenge and say your track record speaks for itself...knowing you can't provide your track record b/c of the board's etiquette...hmmm, I guess it just doesn't impress me. But maybe he's some famous trader/money manager (hiding under the alias of a singer??) and I'm the only one here who doesn't know his real identity...

    I'd still like to see him take on ProfLogic's challenge, though.
     
    #396     Mar 15, 2005
  7. tattoo

    tattoo

    maybe you can't trade because your wasting all your time posting here
     
    #397     Mar 15, 2005
  8. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    With-the-trend techniques are by far more difficult psychologically to follow compare to counter trend ones. The simple reason is: you have to be enormously discipline to take, let's say, 15 small loses on a row to capture one good trade that would pay for all of your efforts. It is very easy to nibble 1 - 2 ticks trading counter trend following any kind of oscillator rather then keep on taking it in the chin. Although with-the-trend trading is by far more difficult it is, also, by far more rewarding due to the "fat tails" that seem to pop up everywhere these days.
     
    #398     Mar 15, 2005
  9. profturf

    profturf

    a member points to the fat tails that crop up all over these days. "'ER ,-------- Have you tested that ". There has not been a decline or rise of more than 2% in the s and p in last 2 years. The implied volatility stands steady as a stone wall at 11% . And the main exponent and player of fat tails has taken a " sabbatical from trading " amid presumably drastic losses since he stopped reporting results after a swoonful period at the very market bottom. Are you sure that the evidence, both practical and empirical of the past 2 years is not consistent with narrow tails? Recall that a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1%, ( about the empirical stand dev of most markets including equity futures, ), 5% of the observations will exceed + or - 2% and and 1 % of the observations, or 5 every two years will exceed 2.5 %. Perhaps this is the calm before the storm. ? profturf
     
    #399     Mar 15, 2005
  10. With-the-trend techniques are by far more difficult because you need to have a system. Nibble 1-2 ticks has more to do with gambling, it has nothing at all to do with trading.
    Trendfollowers need a vision.
    The difficulty grows exponentially with the lenght of time that your in a trade. If you stay in for 1 hour you need to know what the direction is. I have daytrades that last sometimes 3-4 hours or even longer before i get out. I wonder what a scalper would do if he had to stay in 3-4 hours. His account would probably be wiped out in a few days.
    I think one becomes a scalper because he's not able to make big rides on the trend.
    A trendfollower doesn't have to take 15 small loses for every good trade.
     
    #400     Mar 15, 2005