Your problem is how you define the trend, I assume you trade intraday and the last four days the trend has clearly been down. One thing I look at to determine the trend is a method that is described in mind over markets. Look at the high and lows of 30-min bars. For every higher high assign a value of +1, for every lower low -1, add them all up for the day. This method recognized friday as a reversal day for the Er2.
Hey: I like to put of a daily chart and look at the recent week. Its pretty obvious what the recent trend is. As for trading "with the trend", most folks simply aren't psychologically set up to sit still while the market wiggles around. Its called "patience". The way you get their is to cultivate confidence, and the way you get there is to be competent. Easy to see the trend intraday. Put up a summary chart with the INDU, COMP, SPX and OEX all right next to each other. Just watch them and you will see intraday trend clearly. Watch how the OEX and SPX change. If you are "patient" and observant you will eventually notice that changes in the OEX and SPX happen first, then are reflected in the INDU. Try just watching for a while. Heres a method for index trading To trade with the trend, put up your charts with a 5 period EMA and a 21 period EMA. Start by looking at the slope of the lines. When the lines both slope up or down you have a general trend. After that you are looking for the 5 period to pullback to the 21. When price touches or dips below the 21 period EMA, you wait for it to resume its trend and pick your entry point. Put on your position, and choose a reasonable stop (say 1.5 points). Take half your profit at 1 point, and another 1/4 at 1.5 pts. Leave the rest to run or close it out if it goes south. Reverse the process for shorts. OK so this is about as old as the hills, but it works IF you exhibit discipline, taking only trades with the trend and keeping to your stop and profit taking. So....lets see what you can do with it killer!!!
Your monitoring set up is incomplete so you are not going to go anywhere for a while. Position trade trends for a few months and as you do, trade movements intraday for your position. See olde posts of AMTSWA for examples. At some point you will at last observe that there is a remarkable occurance when trends and moves within trends happen concurrently (Again see AMTSWA's big exits with all cars as a reversal). Since your setup is so sparse on quality data, at some point you will drop the crap you watch and just add the minimal stuff you need to hit the nail on the head. You may get something I am saying to you when and if you see the common factor that shows the big reversal exit indication. That is, when a trend ends. When you start watching two streams of profit running along simultaneously, it may be sufficient to screw up the brain damage you have caused yourself you repeatedly by failing the way you have. You have a major task at hand to disrupt and eliminate years of building parallel paths of erroneous pathways in your brain. Doing simultaneous trading in the style of AMTSWA will go along way towards "chaining out" "succession" type growth in the pastures of your mind.
How do you know if any trend will continue or not? You dont. You want to be in before it tests the last hi/lo so that you have a little cushion as its makes the test. That is the beauty of waiting for the first pullback from a new hi/lo. The trick is finding that sweet spot to enter and that takes a bit of practice.
I find the comings and goings of trends are easy enough to guage. It's simple mechanics. What I'm currently challenged by though, is properly guaging all the distributions, concerning the learning, of the diversity of tends, which are greatly a skew.
OK then, this is really pretty simple, and after this I am outta here for the day. Look, for the indexes (ES for example) you can take intraday data and detrend it. Then look at the distribution of moves from one tick out to whatever the largest move is (maybe 2.5 to 3 points). You will see how price trends (when it does), and for how long. You will also develop a feel for what kind of moves happen during the chop. Works like a charm, if you put some time in. I do this every Sunday, and as a result, when I put on a position, I have a pretty good idea of what the odds are of getting a continuation move, or having to get out with a small scalp. Its called "learning your levels... Lefty