I do . . . if you use that and are satified with it . . . marvelous! I don't use measurement because randomness can not CALCULATED with any accuracy. I'm saying that when price is trending the current oscillation can have only 4 possible PHYSICAL outcomes. 1 - a Breach of the last resistance or support level (designating the continuation of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level) 2 - a Failure to Breach the last resistance or support level (designating the beginning of the end of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level) 3- an exact match of the last resistance or support level (designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level) 4 - and FINALLY - a weak breach/weak failure of the last resistance or support level {strickly defining weakness}(designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level) It is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY for price to do something other than one of these 4 outcomes. At least in this dimension.
Ah. Efficiency theory is the underlying assumption here. Now it's clear--not that I agree, but I see where you're coming from. Thanks. I'm glad my timing models somehow exist (and outperform) outside the bounds of such academic theories, though.
I think this is the point that you miss: Every "trend" has a beginning and an end. If you detect a "trend" tomorrow and act on it, your odds of acting at the "end" are fairly low, since obviously the "end" is only one point along the continuum of prices comprising the "trend". So here's what we can say: 1. Trends clearly exist. We can see them on charts in every time frame. 2. The two most likely points along this trend continuum for us to "miss" would be the beginning point and the ending point. 3. Therefore, the odds are vastly in favor at any point along the continuum that if you make a trade in the direction of trend that it will continue. What a "trend trader" should see on a chart is the "trend" within that particular time frame. Once he "sees" the trend, he would know that the odds vastly favor acting in the direction of trend, because his odds of picking the end of the trend are quite low. None of this by the way means that when you are looking at a particular trend that it is impossible that the trend could end at the next instant. It's just unlikely. At any point along the trend continuum the trend is more likely to continue than to end. OldTrader
I don't know Prof, first I think that you and I are mind set on two entirely different time intervals... (even though fractal relationships cause this to not even matter, really). And with that I have to say that the primary phYsical characteristics of the market ( that I study) cause me to say that I believe you are delusioned. Not saying though, that your methodology might not be extremely profitable and accurate, but you can't be talking about the most foundational physical characteristics, as I am.
Actually with your "4", I agree loosely. I only say loosely because we're talking two different contexts.
Proftlogic I was checking out your results so far this year for es on your website. Do I read it right when it says 203 trades so far with no losers? edit: oops. I see now that these are hypothetical results. Do you have any actual trading results anywhere?
I spent a few hours on reading this threads. Benefiting from all sides arguments,...... . As i was a scalper so i understood most of what you said here. You mentioned many times in this threads----- "efficiency theory" Could you give me a brief, a few words to outline what is efficiency theory to help me understand you better. Now i call my trade "micro-swing" style something in between of scalping and swing (trend) trading. Thank you in advance
I checked the attachment to this statement I made on page 18 None of the black (text or lines) came through on the chart. Attached is a diffrent extention from paint. I tested it in feedback and it seems to transmit properly. For making money trends are really extremely supportive. There are many commonly shared views in this thread that demonstrate that very few people understand what a trend is or even where it is on what they are viewing. Those that do not think trends exist do not make it into this group. Flashboy demonstrates several handicaps that are shared by many here. All money making occurs in a partnership the trader makes with the market. Neither can do the others jobs or tasks. All money is made by the principle of the time rate of change of price over time. So WHEN you annotate as you monitor, is important. The five minute display of whatever the chart is showing (qqqq)served to illustrate making money. Trends define where price cannot go and where price is contained. Since they overlap each other, you are never in doubt about where price can make you money. You also know that you can make money all of the time from this one factor. Naturally, from about fifth grade onward it is possible to, at all times, define where price is contained. Knowing that a trend ends within its container is another simple beautiful thought. It allows you to make more money and make it sooner. The attachment has trend lines for making money as you monitor. There are 26 segments for the 4 1/2 hours. they all are drawn ASAP and occasionally extended. The volume dV/dt is shown as positive and negative segments; there are 21 of these. As a skill test, print the chart (with black showing) and number the segments for price and the segments for volume. Monitoring money making involves two calculus related items dP/dt which is ever positive for your trades (you trade long or short to take advantage of all price movements all the time) and dV/dt which is THE leading indicator of price. Now you see a plus dV/dt means tren will continue. A negative dV/dt means the trend will change. "continue" and "change" are not opposites. Making money does not deal in opposites. You can see that almost all elite trader posts are based upon opposites. The market does a job. It tells you about change and continuation. Traders think about opposites mistakenly. Here is a common pair of them that are in a lot of posts: buy and sell. What if a person was interested in making money and he partnered with the market to make money. When he becomes a real pro (this is an amateur term for me), he deals in two factors that are not opposites: hold and reverse. When dV/dt is positive the market is saying be ready to keep holding; when dV/dt is negative the market is saying be ready to reverse. This activity is simple. The second derivative of Volume relative to price goes to zero between the times The first derivative changes sign. Write out the definition of sidelining from the above. Hint: you sideline when the activity of the market exceeds your skills and when dP/dt = 0. So in this chart you see other major data for making money. trends have widths and velocity (steepness). The container of price in which you trade has sides. The calculus of Volume is related to which side.... LOL..... Imagine whether more people use this side to trade than the other side. Imagine as you read this you have never in your life even thought this far into making money. So make a list of everyone who talks about trend lines and their slopes only. make a list of those who use twosides to define a trend. Why did DB never get to using the correct side to ______ or _______? So the chart shows a typical "M" day. Do you see the trend channel widens for each of the two am trends? On positive dV/dt in both cases. Do you see the trend container ends as P comes of the left line as dV/dt goes negative after d2V/dt2 zeroed in between. All of this is where the overlap of the trends is initiated. So do you look closely enough to see when ASAP occurs to draw a segment for the trend container of the prices to come, all within the trend. Lets say you do not know any fifth graders who can explain this to you. At least you can go out on the wrong side of the trend channel later. For those who have it down, see how smooth the low volume slalom begins when, as usual the "S" of the day gives you the repeated failure (INSUFFICIENT Volume) to expand the L of the H/L of the day. Did you see that H hit for you. No you didn't; there wasn't anylow volume to prove in the H. Borrow a yellow crayola from a child to underline whats new to you. Mark in a color of your choosing, what you need to change in your mind. Say each one at least five times to make anything even start to stick.
Efficiency theory says that current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information. It seems obvious to me, considering the money at stake and the resources available to the bigger players.