Picking tops/bottoms is not necessarily antithetic to trend trading. For eg., former market wizard Gary Bielfeldt picked the low in the Bonds in 1984 and held the trade for 2 years!!
What makes you think that a series of coin flips has anything to do with stock price movement? Perhaps the fact that you believe this simply illustrates your lack of ability with stocks, and perhaps indicates that you should stick to flipping coins. In terms of "when a trend will end", I think you missed my point. I believe that I can identify certain conditions that indicate the beginnings and ends of trends, not with 100% certainty, but with "enough" certainty, and at a time when my risk to make a trade is relatively speaking small relative to the reward. But from YOUR standpoint, with your belief system where you believe nothing is more certain than a coin flip, the point I was making is that the end of a trend is no more certain than the beginning of a trend. What we know is that a trade can be wrong once...and that is at the end of the trend. Any other time your trade will be right as long as you have acted in the direction of the trend. Here's an example: The market turned up in March 2003. In "hindsight" that is clear. Now, I don't know when you might have been able to say "yes, there is a trend, and it is up"....but certainly it should have been let's say within a few months or so from the bottom. And the point is that had you made a long trade then, it clearly would have been successful, a new high having been achieved just last week, 2 years later. Again, in a trend the most unlikely thing that can happen at any point along the trend is that it will end. That isn't to say that it won't end, just that it's less likely than to continue. And in your case, you don't believe you have any ability to determine the end of a trend, so there is no point to arguing anything other than it's continuance. OldTrader
It's true, I've offered proof repeatedly on ET but it's more fun to aggitate than to prove it to yourselves. Search the threads, all the proof is there for anyone to see.
Easy, you have to be kidding right. It's a smorgasbord of goo. Not an original thought on the site. Elliott Wave . . . Please. How to start a war? Give 4 separate Elliott wave people in the same room guns and ask them what wave they are on. LOL The book store is a nice touch . . . let's run out and buy a book to learn to trade. Surely those authors make a bulk of their money trading . . . right? The site does look nice though. I guess someone has to perpetuate all those dried up methods that people used before technology and when the Markets had a 50 point range per year. Hank truly has found his literary calling.
If anyone is thinking of buying a book thay should go for classics,The ones that run 1st 2nd 3rd ect , editions ,And not go for most of the shit that is being pucked out today......
Your arguments lead me to assume that you are modelling prices as a stochastic processes. But then the question is... is the random walk really random?
prof. how is this "Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED" better than that?