You're going the right direction and have very much the right mindset. If you keep at it and chip away at those tiny percentage improvements, you'll get there. It sounds like you're in that very vexing place right now where you're not good enough to make money outright, but not bad enough to just flip that strategy and fade your instinct. The answer here is to keep your positions small because that will decrease your market tuition. Another thing to keep in mind, improving how often you're right isn't the only path forward. Making winners larger than losers can work just as well. And this point is not something you should overlook as an option trader. So keep reading, but remember that most of what you read is already stale and everyone else knows it already. And every time you make a trade, your counter party thinks you're wrong. Keep what you can control under your control. Right now, reducing commissions is probably your largest loss controlling measure you can take. If you can get yourself just back to even, you can spend a lot of time and effort learning...and it sounds like you're going to do well if you keep watching and learning. So, I wish you all the best...good luck!
====Why can't I get to 50% chance even?=== why should you? playing the market is not comparable to flipping the coin you question reminds me the old anecdote: when the blond was asked what are the chances that a dinosaur will come out from around the corner? 50-50 she answered - it will either come out or not
Trend-following consistent above 50% win-rate means you are successfully predicting the future between good future bets and bad future bets, irrespective of holding period. Maybe there are a few rare people who can do this, but it's not usually what trading's all about.
Some thoughts: ☼ the fact that you are placing a high value on expectancy puts you above 66.7% of retail traders, easily. Probably 75%. ☼ "T/A": the vast majority of traders who have used technical indicators have no idea what they are doing. (Defined as: being able to correctly describe what the indicator does/is, in a single sentence. i.e, If a Stochastic is currently "80-and-descending", what does that mean? Don't tell me, "It's a short entry sign!" Tell me what 80 is. Tell me what 79 might be in the next minute.) If you don't know the summary intuitive description, get it off your screen. And yes, that applies to your itchy clouds, which we all know are lacking in just that way. ☼ All T/As involved moving averages, to group behaviors into discernible trends and divergences. That's it! No magic happens. NONE. Yet, those who have studied T/A have not always tailored the moving averages to reflect the underlying market in front of them -- and they proceed to disparage what they did not bother to make operative. So: tailor your T/A; if it "works", then get into its guts and find out why and what it's doing and saying and implying about the future behavior of your market. When you can do that in a single sentence, use it with that coin-flip 50|50 standard, and know that your trade expectancy will leave you profitable in the long run. And if you can't tailor it to work, or can't explain it to your Mom, get it off your screen now.
You should be. Spreads and commissions are a huge cost over time. Remember, that like any casino, in trading the house has the edge. And it can be a big one.
folks - just waking up and reading this thread; I'm really grateful for the words of wisdom of every single one of you. I was going to ask about mentoring or paid services, but from this thread and other comments on this forum, I am starting to see this journey is a lonely one and it is basic understanding that needs to be developed through deep study. I'll keep my trades small, my frequency high and my mind open (to learning) many thanks.
now you talking but keep in mind that even so there is much to study, the public knowledge here unlike other fields does not translate to success trade on paper first there is old Ukrainian proverb: more paper - cleaner the butt...
the thing is with paper your just cleaning your butt....not learning in the real trading world..risk is the best teacher...risk small... learn then risk more..you will discover how to lower your risk..your way!
I agree - my decisions are going to be different by using real money. I have a reasonable budget and am willing to pay a learning fee to the market. Is this forum a place where I could post the trades i had made, the assumptions I had while doing it, to get feedback. Or is that not appreciated?