Really? Plug his stats into the simulator that ES provided a link to and tell me there's no edge. In case you can't figure out what to do, put .42 in the first box and .82 in the second box, then hit "generate." http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
I like Electric's idea to rank my winners and especially my losers and try to identify the largest offenders and attack them. I have thought about setting up a trade ranking to identify the highest probability trades and to filter out the lower prob. trades. Working full time with a family does impinge on my home computer time somwhat, as I know a lot of you can attest. Fear of success? I don't know if I have it, I do want to succeed more than I have thus far. My 1st 2 years I was b/e, last year I made $20k, but this year I'm back to b/e so far....all my inconsistencies can be attributed to not trading everyday what my system tells me to. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that I just need to FOLLOW MY DAMN SYSTEM!
Ranking is for your bet-size models...not to eliminate them or the trades...keep the adjustments small...allocate more money to the higher probability trades and less to the lower...do not rewrite your system ok? you can even incorporate accelerations in scaling techniques...cornering your trade... but then you would be a pro! Michael B. P.S. Oh my Gawd....you could even do that trade down approach and break out some componets of the dow or the SP 500 and reweight them...but then you would be out of Futures and into equities...
I am not debating the definition of an edge here. My belief about the existence or non existence of an edge off the floor is irrelevant to this discussion. Besides, whether his "edge" is big or small depends on perspective. Hence, my statement you quoted. Again, not the point of this thread.
You brought it up when you offered your uninformed opinion: "The problem with such a small 'edge' becomes..." I think your diaper needs to be changed.
Just because your mind is too closed off to comprehend what i am trying to imply without getting into too many details doesnt mean i dont know anything on the subject. It's because of people like you that seeking advice on ET is usually a bad idea. Keep crunching your numbers in your statistical models all you want in search of that great edge. If OP doesnt get a grip on those relatively huge losers and reduce his draws, he wont be around for too long. No simulation software is going to show him the holy grail. What a joke. I am done with this thread. Carry on. No offense OP.
I think you'd be a lot better off if you stopped pretending you know what you're talking about when you actually know that you have no clue.