I have been scaling out of my "long term longs" as well. However, I'm looking to fully deploy my cash when we get below SPX 700...
Questions answered about TRIN and PUT/CALL ratio. http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.asp?category=2
Yeah I don't know about "conservative daytrader" but I do agree that being partly or fully in cash isn't necessarily such a bad idea right now. Things are very crazy.
Today was brutal for me. I kept trading for the pullback. Anyone have a recommendation of a trading rule when to stop countertrending the market? And when it finally did pull back I was too emotionally drained to participate.
Rule of 3. SPY has struck overhead resistence 3 times. High probability of a pullback. http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.asp?category=1
Obviously, any iron clad recommendation on such would be worth a buck or three. A fairly good rule of thumb on trends is to buy the pullbacks on up days and sell the rallys on down days. The trick is to determine the trend early enough and take your profits before it turns. On that, seems best to trade some and hold some so you are guaranteeing some profit but holding some for the big moves and having a trailing stop to preserve profit/limit loss on the remaining position. to actually answer your question, i generally don't countertrend the market on purpose but whenever i get into any position, i have a stop in mind determined by the volatility, ATR, etc. of whatever stock/ETF/futures contract i am trading that if it moves against me by that amount, in your case, a continuation of the trend, then i am out. then, of course, it turns as soon as i stop myself out;-) hope this helps