Why Arent Refiners Exploding Up-oil Down Huge

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dsq, Aug 8, 2008.

  1. dsq


    VLO,TSO ARE UP modestly while oil has tanked 35pts in the last 3 weeks.I thought they would have a better bounce than this....
    This rally doesnt inspire confidence yet.
    Financials are sloppy.
    A rebound in oil and an inevitable and big pullback in us dollar will whack this market middle of next week.
    The dollar rally is short lived and will be a great short soon.
  2. bkveen3


    you don't trade on PA or TA do you?
  3. You took the words right out of my mouth.
  4. Oil is not the determinate of reefer margins, it is the crack spreads, which are not all that good and thus why these reefers are performing so lousy.

    It's all about the crack, baby!!
  5. crack will get better, refiners like TSO which are actively hedging are doing better than refiners like VLO thats why TSO is up way more than VLO, this should get better, if oil is not moving on news of war between Russia and Georgia than i dunno what can make it rally....

    Nonetheless i am still very cautious and i advise everyone to also be cautious all this (oil down 25% from high/dollar rally) has happened way to quickly for my liking.

    good trading, sp
  6. Oil sector will be weak into the end of the month from my estimates. I wouldn't touch anything in that entire sector long that has anything to do with it.

    Focus on going long on other sectors man. You are going to miss out on big moves to the upside and kick yourself.

  7. Incorrect.

    TSO is one of the worst refiners out there.
    They lose money while VLO does not. In Q2, they had an after tax hedging loss of $81 million. In fact, TSO is on its way to losing close to .70 cents a share this year.

    VLO leads them in almost every single metric across the board.
  8. oil and refiners are two completly different things, what do you mean?
  9. i have my opinion you have yours thats why the market does what it does
  10. It's not an opinion.
    It's a FACT based on reported earnings and accounting numbers.
    How are you not aware of this?
    #10     Aug 8, 2008