Why are UK 10-year bond yields so low?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by ajensen, Jun 11, 2019.

  1. ajensen

    ajensen

    Why do U.K. 10-year gilts yield 0.87% when inflation expectations are 2.7%? I am thinking of shorting 10-Year Long Gilt Sep '19 (GU19) .

    I understand that it's not an arbitrage and that UK bond yields could even go negative, as they have in the Eurozone, Switzerland, and Japan. But I don't understand -2% real yields and think they are unsustainable.
     
  2. ZBZB

    ZBZB

    Anticipation of more QE after Brexit?
     
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    not just UK bond yield is low.
    Germany, US bond yield are also low.
     
  4. ajensen

    ajensen

    Yes, but their expected inflation is higher than in the U.S. and the 10-year interest rate is more than 1% lower.
     

  5. You are absolutely right! Real yields are a MAJOR joke in the UK. This is not only a short - this is a mega short. There is no inherent risk premium in UK bonds. Lately, I spoke to an asset manager at Aberdeen (several hundred billion AUM). He said, the craziness stems from regulatory duties on asset managers, life insurers and else to hold AAA bonds in their portfolios - which is an absolute joke.