A flash crash is the result of panic and a panic can’t make people buy indiscriminately! However, markets do swing, on the upper side also sharply, mostly on some key events, like an election results giving decisive victory to one party rather than throwing a hung parliament. But for sure, that can’t be termed as flash rally!
Flash rally on the Tillerson news, lasted 12 minutes, then returned where it began. Later on it continued, but this is the definition of flash rally, 13 ES points up and down...
Roderick, I totally agree with you. Sharp downturns of the market are mainly caused by the panicking investors and big players. As a rule they happen before the publication of the important economic statistics.
What do you think causes the lack of liquidity? Some good research on tops and bottoms here... https://www.lowryresearch.com/Research/WhitePapers
Flash crashes North are called the so called "Fat Finger" trades on the thinly traded pre market ES/ S&P to run the stops....... Flash crash are due to lack of liquidity underneath... when Bots control inside bid/ Inside ask.. they don`t need depth... until the bots do the Houdini & market is exposed for what it is!
out of curiosity, do you have the time line ? or when the dates were clustered ? how many of those up moves were in the past 20 yrs ?
Just 3 were in the last 20 years, but that's above average for such a long time period. The 3 most recent one-day "crashes" were No.13: 15/10/08 -7.9% No.15: 01/12/08: -7.7% No.16: 09/10/08: -7.3% Just outside the 20yr range was No.19: 27/10/97: -7.2% Out of interest, No.1 was Black Monday: 19/10/87: -22.6% This one came out of a bearish development, not out of the blue in a bull market. Price had peaked on 25/08. Price closed below the 50EMA on 04/09 and the average started to flat-line. The 20EMA closed below the 50 on 12/10. Price closed below the 200EMA on 15/10. The Friday close on 16/10 was the lowest of the week, and the day's low was also the week's low. After the Black Monday fall price took 24mths to regain the 25/08/87 high.
8 of the 66 one-day rises over 5.0% since 1900 were in the last 20yrs: in order of severity: 13/10/08 28/10/08 23/03/09 13/11/08 21/11/08 24/07/02 10/03/09 29/07/02 4 were in the very volatile period immediately after the 2008 start of the global financial crisis and 2 were right after the 09/03/09 bottom.