If you do not have an incredibly strong passion for trading you will not succeed. Maybe you should just quit while you are ahead. *** In addition, what you are doing is like: 1. asking for a drink of water while sitting in lake of sparkling fresh aqua. 2. complaining you don't have a girflriend while sitting on a nude beach full of willing, attractive, women. 3. saying that you are starving while sitting at a feast designed to satisfy any and all palates ... asking for someone to come and bring you some food. ... I could point out several different directions you can go in ... but trading is a process of self evolution, so it's up to you to evolve. OK, OK ... hit the Journals section and start reading: a) ES Journal b) Rule of 10 Journal c) Anekedoten's Holy Grail Journal *** There, you have nothing to complain about anymore.
Ah, more effiecent market so strategies that worked before may not work now. So people keep things that work a secret? Does this hold true? Are there things that used to work but don't work now? Someone told me to read about "The Turtle Traders". I have seen where some say this doesn't work anymore but others say it does. It's the traders that don't hold to the rules. Paul
I am going to read some of the things suggested here and do more research. I really am not trying to make enemies. I appreciate all the comments. Even the not so nice ones Paul
I agree with Mandelbrot's suggestions. The AHG thread will clearly dispell your notion that no one every shares anything of value on ET. It's a big one, but worth the effort. Few (and many have tried) have been able to decipher Jack's various ramblings. In contrast, many have learned quite a bit from Anekdoten and turned what they learned into profitable trading focusing on price action, with minimal to no use of indicators.
WTF do you expect??!!! Look, most people are morons anyway, so there is a lot of crap on ET, besides, ET mostly provides some light entertainment for arrogant snots like myself. Having said that, there is the occasional morsel or tidbit of useful info from generous individuals. Your job is to sift through all the crap and pan for gold. Ders gold in dem der hills, but can you find it? Do not expect others to answer your questions that can be answered by a modicum of your own work.
Hey pclark, lilduckling hereâ¦â¦.. I know where your coming from and I feel your pain. You want to focus your attention on a narrow set of methods or method, and not spend months and months chasing every strategy to see whether or not they work. Thus when you see traders shooting down a method, you kinda of want to see the reasons why, so that then you could use your own assessment to determine who is on to something and who is full of shit. Well, I will tell you some things hereâ¦. You may or may not agree with themâ¦. I donât knowâ¦. and it doesnât matter to me either way. First off, you need to make a sharp distinction between knowing how to trade, and becoming profitable. The two are not the same, different as night and day. A basketball coach knows how to play basketball, but could never compete against players that know a lot less then him. You often hear people inquiring âwho is a good traderâ or others posting their trades to proudly show how well they did. Its all bologna. None of that tells you whether a system works or notâ¦. It just tells you it worked for that particular trade in that particular time. A feat that a chimp in any zoo could easily accomplish also. Secondly, you need to draw out a plan that explicitly states what is profitability and what is break even. Not just for every trade, but for the week, for the month, and for the year. It is very different for everybody. After one year, you made $3500. Itâs a profit on paper, but is it a profit for you? Is it a breakeven? Trader A makes $4000 in one week, and gives it back the following 3 weeks and is at zero for the month. Trader B makes $50 per week and is up $200 for the month. Some would say they are both break even for the month. Others say trader B. What if after six months they are both at $2500. Along those 6 months trader A had 60% draw down while trader B had 8% draw down. Is it still a coin toss? I donât know. It doesnât matter. Its something you have to sit down and decide for yourself. Because it is between you and your wife, if after one or two years, you made $15,000.â¦.. And your wife tells you to get out and get a ârealâ job or sheâs leaving you. Third, you are starting off like I didâ¦.. Putting more emphasis in the method or strategy than on yourself. The best trading systems will not be profitable if in the wrong hands, and the oldest crummiest ones will work in the right hands. Just like a camera. In my case a firearm, often in the range, I would outscore shooters with high tech modern pistols, while I used a 120 year old colt revolver replica. When I started trading in 03, I remember being in Dan Zangers room (In those days I was searching for everythingâ¦. Gurus, trading rooms, methodsâ¦.newslettersâ¦.etc, left no stone unturned) anyways there was a trader that was really making good money, big money⦠he would call out trades from stocks he was day trading, but it would usually be too late by the time you were ready to hit the buyâ¦. They moved fast right after he called them. He never would talk about his method. Fed up one day I asked him for some tips. He didnât give me any, except to say that I have to find my own way, find what works for me. Of course the system he was using was what I wanted, because I could see it working week after week. I didnât understand then, that it wouldâve never worked for me. He was using tremendous amounts of money (millions) for very small moves. Even if had I somehow adopted his strategy, had the balls of steel to scalp in and out like he did, I still would hardly make any money. In fact the profits would not pay for all the data fees. The point is thisâ¦â¦ just because a system works, doesnât mean the system will be profitable for you. You have to be in the right time frame, the right trading vehicle, with the right amount of $, that fits your style and personality. No one here can tell you which of those is best for youâ¦.. Only you can figure that out for yourself. And you will figure it out. All you need is two things in this business to become successful. You always hear 97% fail. But all youâ¦. All anyone, needs to succeed is TIME and MONEYâ¦. thatâs it. Run out of either one before you learned the ropes and thatâs it⦠your out. 97% fail⦠but anyone can succeed. Take a homeless bum off the streets, if he has no restraints with money or timeâ¦. He will become a profitable trader!! It may not be as fast as you⦠might take him 15 years to get there⦠but he would get there. Most fail because there IS a constraint in money and timeâ¦most are out in under 1 year. Even a monkey, will become profitable!! Just give him 150 million years in front of a computer. So what you have to do, before you even draw up a trading planâ¦. Is come up with a business plan. Thatâs right⦠you need both a trading plan and a business. Because some of the most important things you will do, is lay out a foundation that will allow you the time and expense to become profitable in trading. THIS is often overlooked by manyâ¦. And thus they fail within 1 year. Have a business plan, that will allow you the time and money to stay alive in this, long enough to learn how to become profitable. As you are beginning to see, some off the most important things you can do to increase your odds of success, has nothing to do with trading. Some of the most important things in trading, have nothing to do with strategies⦠as I mentioned above. Most approach this business in the exact opposite of what I have laid out. They start off looking for a strategy. Now I want to address the posters here. There is bad information here, and there is good information here. The bad info posses no threat to you, since you see it for what it is. The good information is what you have to be careful withâ¦. Since itâs what may have you spend time with further investigation and dissemination. Time, as I spoke about earlier, is a commodity in this business. This brings us to your original dilemma⦠how to tell which posters are sharing valuable info, and which ones are just posting opposing views for the hell of it. Well if you are new here and donât know the posters, then its difficult⦠since your just going by peoples opinion. When you read a strategy out here do two things: Does it make sense? In other words is it rational? If yes, then figure out if it fits you. So if thereâs a neat thread about swing trading using fundamentalsâ¦. And your style is day trading with technicalâs⦠no matter how good that system is, it would be a waste of your time to pursue it. âOh⦠maybe I can incorporate some aspects of it to fitââ¦.. forget it!! There are so many strategies and systems that are up your alleyâ¦. Why spend time walking around in another neighborhood? Some people think⦠âIâll take a little from that system, and little from that other oneâ¦. etcâ¦. and Iâll end up with a real sweetheart of a systemâ well feel free to engage in mental masturbation all you want⦠but you usually end up with the red headed step child. The truth isâ¦. Its almost impossible to tell a new trader they donât need other peoples strategies. A new trader does not want to hear it⦠its like asking them to breath underwater. Only when a trader begins to get experience under his/her belt, does that trader realize the truthâ¦. That they, and only they will come up with a system that works. âBut, but, but how..but I need a start, I needââ¦â¦. Take your computer, turn it on, watch the market. Donât trade, donât even paper trade⦠just watchâ¦.watch. Start taking a few notes after a while. But keep on just watching. Weeksâ¦even months! Believe me, you will be head and shoulders above so many others that start this. Lastly, there are no âsystemsâ that people have that they want to keep secret⦠in fear it might âwater downâ the profits. Any system they have that is working for them is because they made it âfitâ them. Its like one old lady asking another old lady if she can borrow her dentures because she left hers at the house. Systems are kinda like that. I know I didnât really answer all your questionsâ¦.. But I figured Iâd contribute something to this thread. Otherwise people will say all i do is attack Jack.
<i>"I don't mind spending my own money and losing some as well. I am just trying the best I can to follow the most correct path I can and with some of the opionions here and not knowing who is right and wrong that is a little hard. Thats all I am saying."</i> I guess a good place to start is, did you learn photography from free message boards? Did you learn how to deal with unexpected chaos where at a wedding photo shoot the bride & groom engage in embarrasing food fights, entire wedding party was drunk and the bride's mother's wig fell off? Did you learn the patience it takes to come up with a successful shoot of a family portrait where three young kids are the epitome of monstrous? Your shoot was expected to last 30min and here it is, two hours later without one useable print. Did you learn the delayed gratification of driving an hour each way five nights out of seven for a month trying to get one, just one solid photo of a trophy whitetail deer that would make six month's income in magazine covers, calendars and/or ad copy sales? * You can learn tidbits here and there from public message boards about anything. But no one ever became a polished photographer strictly from the content within. There are jumps from there. At least three threads were noted here as educational: Jack Hershey stuff has merit, if you learn to speak, read and comprehend an entirely new language (way apart from english) and then strip away 50% to 90% of what is there. 1,000s and 1,000s of pages to decipher, winnow thru, narrow down and summarize for yourself. ES Journal is a compilation from dozens of people who have come & gone, posting mish-mesh bits of different ideas and approaches. Some blatantly conflict with one another, many times there are opposing trades taken at the same time. The OP never really goes into great depth about what he does / does not do for all aspects of trade entry, management, exit and self management. Good stuff sprinkled in... amongst 6,000+ pages of running idle conversation. The AHG thread is an evolutionary journal, a journey thru where the OP starts with a basic concept to trade and evolves with help from many others into where it ultimately ends. The journey begins with merits of chart indicators and tools, explores a plethora of viable options and alternatives and summarily sheds most if not all of them in the end. Again, 1,000s of pages to digest. * Charles Alsheimer lives about fifteen minutes' drive away from me here. Perhaps you've heard of him... he's a very accomplished wildlife photographer who easily makes more money in his craft than 95% of this entire board does from trading. I could outfit myself with the same Nikon cameras, same $6,000 to $10,000 lenses. I could setup blinds and watch for wildlife subjects in the same areas he did for years while building his portfolio. I could read a couple of his books and go over the several pages of photo tips he covers. That would almost get me to square one of a long, long journey. Nothing could replace working with Charles directly for at least a little bit, then investing hours of study and practice on my own to learn all nuances involved in wildlife photography. Public message boards are by their nature unstructured, rambling and disjointed in group-grope effort. I could comb free public message boards for the rest of my life and never learn one iota what can be taught directly from an experienced photographer who, most importantly, would teach me how to tutor myself. lilduck's lengthy post is easily in the top five I've read in my time at this forum. Actually, it's real close to the #1 most informative you'll ever read here.
My jokes aside, lilduckling's post is exactly what this business is about. If you adopt other people's strategies, all you pick up are cigar butts. They have a few puffs left in them and that's it. Once the joy is over you go out hunting for a new strategy again, starting at zero because you have not developed them yourself and therefore cannot handle various market conditions accurately enough. That is the primary reason why traders don't bother sharing them or avoid going into details. Previous experiences with aspiring traders have taught me that they cannot handle my strategy well and tend to mess up. Now those individuals start doubting my reputation obviously. So I simply shut my mouth in denial and continue trading on my own. Not saying that everyone is like that but that's what I have experienced very often. To approach your dilemma appropriately, you have to seek out an instrument that you like to trade from now on. Be it stocks, futures, ETF's etc. Pick one that appeals to you spontaneously where you say, "hey that's something I feel good trading with". Start observing it like a predator. Be the wildcat on the hunt. Make observations such as, "alright, it has moved all the way up/down from here to here. Why did it reverse there? Is there something in historical price activity that could have indicated it? It paused here for a while but resumed its direction eventually. How could I manage such situations correctly? How could I have catched the move? Was there an early hint? Where do I jump off if it doesn't work out? Which time frame do I choose? Do I need a moving average?" Ask questions such as these and you will soon develop your own strategy. All it takes is the tissue between your ears and a good eye. Talk with your instrument as if it was your spouse. Very often traders with good social skills (who read people well) tend to perform well also. They understand the behavior of the instrument they are dealing with and know exactly what to look out for in various situations and market conditions.
There are always going to be trolls and negativity. However, I do think there is a lot of good info on ET and I've found a lot of folks here who are willing to share and help. T http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/