i did have that thought for a minute as that would be the only bull case for owning the stock. Even if Trump wins the presidency, Truth Social isn't going to make more money. I then realized that Musk can buy DJT instead of buying DJT (if you know what i mean).
I am not sure how accurate it is but there you have this poll based on a betting exchange. It is based on the odds of the exchange itself. Puts on an option chain are normally more expensive than calls, as per: https://optionalpha.com/learn/call-options-vs-put-options There is obviously a lot of hype for the guy.
For KISS... The side of the market which is more expensive is the side the MM expects to see demand for whatever reason... and is pricing it in. So... if you perceive that puts are more expensive than calls, it's because the MM is expecting "down" action.
You can arb the ps against the cs. The most reliable/least arbitrary method is to quote the synthetic as kev suggested. It's still likely to show an arb so go buy the box, enjoy!
That's different from trading. It's being bid because players perceive something positive should Trump win. Doesn't mean they are correct in a big sense, but have been "trade" correct recently.