Why am I so bearish on the SPY?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Jul 8, 2007.

  1. My reasoning is contained within the following webpage:


    We are at the late stage in the business cycle. The SPY is a large cap value oriented index composed of only a few bullish sectors. The overall market trades at a P/E of roughly 18 times earnings while the SPY is at 17 times earnings. This means that half of the SPY holdings are value oriented large caps.

    One large sector of the SPY (21%) is the Financials which are breaking down and mired in the subprime mess. A few months ago everyone was saying that the situation wasnt so bad and then Bear Stearns announces that its hedge funds are in subprime hell. What is really going on behind the curtain? Who will be the next to blow?

    Then there is Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Utilities. All of which comprise a good part of the SPY and are doing awful.

    The only bullish parts of the SPY are Energy, Info Tech and Industrials. Energy can change at anytime.

    The Total Market has outperformed the SPY this year. In fact, every index marked "growth" has outperformed the SPY this year.

    The following Vanguard page contains the truth. I love the Vanguard website because it gives me instant access and detailed information on what is performing and what is not.

    Many have questioned how I can be so bearish on the SPY, yet so bullish on growth stocks like Amazon. Isnt it obvious? The market favors growth now and the SPY simply is not growth.

    The simple truth is that the SPY is a lie. Its a dog. Many folks sit behind their home computers and believe that it is a passive non-managed index filled with a conservative blend of stocks. Oh not so. There is a committee that decides what gets on the SPY and what stays out. Before 1996, the committee made an average of 13 changes per year. Then after that year, they started making an average of 40+ changes per year. During the tech bubble, they made several disasterous changes throwing stocks like Broadvision onto the index. After the tech bubble, there was even more changes booting stocks like Broadvision and returning the index to value. Now we sit here again, some 7 years later, where the market likes growth but the index once again is not in a position to perform.

    The more bullish index is that of the stocks that are not included in the S&P500 which is what is called the completion index. Those stocks that do not make the cut are thrown into a pit called the completion index. The completion index took a good dive along with the S&P500 during the tech bust, but it recovered a lot quicker. In fact, it recovered its losses about 2 years ago and is up more then 23% since its 2000 high. The 500, on the other hand, is still mired down unable to get above its all time intraday high and the subprime mess will ultimately hit its largest components.

    The S&P500 is yet another managed mutual fund where a committee decides the make-up. It is the index of the 80s and 90s, but it is not the standard anymore. The standard is non-managed small cap and mid cap indexes. Those are the indexes to beat and so far it appears the mid-cap vanguard index is up 17% year to date while the dog I call SPY is only up 7%. :(
  2. The SPY is the conduit for arb.The aggregate composition in that respect is irrelevant.

    Exactly what is the point you are attempting to convey, aside from stating the obvious?
  3. Many psychologists say you are not crazy when you talk to yourself, but you ARE CRAZY when you talk to yourself and then answer your own questions.

    Just food for CRAZY thought.:D
  4. mike's secret is that he is long some spy. He keeps talking down his position so that the end result is that it moves up.

    the numerous posts of bearish calls in spite of positive price action is the only explanation, that hes long.

    with enough talk about a crash, and bearish sentiment, he wishes to erradicate the possibility of a down move.
  5. Yawn another bear with a 20% down scenario.

    A stopped clock is correct 2x per day. You may get lucky there.
  6. Indeed the question is are enough people yawning?
  7. Im not bearish, actually just bearish on the SPX. Here is a chart of the Russell 3000. The only way the Russell 3000 can be bullish is if it breaks the neck of what looks like a double bottom similiar to the one in February.

    There is a larger picture in which you do not see. In reality, its not the Russell 3000 that is breaking down. There are Russell growth indexes and Russell value indexes. When you input in the Russell value indexes, then you see what is appearing to be a breakdown. When you input the growth indexes, then you see what appears to be a breakout (especially the Russell 2000 growth).
  8. Now compare the Russell 1000 Value chart to the Russell 2000 Growth chart.
  9. Now lets take a step back and look at the larger picture.

    The Russell Value indexes broke out in 2004. Actually, the best investment in 2000-2001 would have been the $RUJ or Russell 2000 value index. The WORST investment at the time would have been Russell 2000 growth index.

    The larger picture is that small-mid cap value has been on a parabolic run since 2000. The $RUJ has expanded itself 2.6 times since January 2001. From 510 to 1260. Value is overvalued.

    Now growth is undervalued. Russell 2000 growth indexes are just starting to break over their January 2001 highs.

    The question is not large cap vs. small-mid cap. The question is value vs. growth. Growth has lagged while value has reigned supreme.

    Here is the big picture for growth.
  10. Finally, I give you growth's sister value. The chart says it all Value has come a long way, but its time for its sister to finally shine. Growth is breaking over a huge cup. I dont believe the SPY has enough growth in her anymore to break out.
    #10     Jul 9, 2007