Well it is not exactly like that, they do not move the price, they get crashed by it. It's that 1% that make the difference, taking the opposite side of the remaining 99% with a few massive transactions.
You're both right. Bitstream's definition applies to commodities and equities where market participants are mainly risk takers while foreign exchange markets have much more fear induced movements with many transactions taking place to reduce risk against *adverse* currency fluctuations. I find this distinction to have a very practical meaning and to have also, opposite consequences on my performance. While I canât complain about my rate of success with stocks, bonds and oil, my fx calls are starting to look more and more like the ideal contrarian indicator :-(
well the problem is regardless of your political views, there are going tobe at least 2 more cat 4 hurricanes this year. There are several systems building in the atlantic already. If this is a yearly thing where you get at least 4 cat 5 hurricanes hitting the US every year, I think the market is delluding itself that this is a temporary phenomna. Katrina costs just the government 200 billion not including the 50 billion supplementary. If rita just costs half as much, and your due for 2 or 3 more this year. Then yeah the market hasnt discounted anything.
talk about frustrating...in my mind $$ should be weaker about 1.2300 or so..... not only have I gone long EUR every time I get stopped-out...but started with 15K capital down to 5k in 5 days....back to 16k in 8 days and down to 5k in 26 HOURS so where to now..... bu they way anyone prefers fxcm over refcofx or any others....thanks for suggestions....
Sorry to sound like a broken record. It's all about the Fed, rising rates, and repatriation of funds to meet the tax credits by year end. Lots of dollar buying. Until that changes, all your songs will have the same lyrics. -Ivan
Ivan, is there a (official) source for any real info about the tax-free profit repatriation? The info from Goldman and Lehman is very suspect, as afterall these are the #1 manipulators of world markets and I wouldn't believe a single word from them. If anything, one could achieve success by simply FADING every single investment advice they offer (if done consistently).
Insurers buy USD to pay claims. I am taking the dollar strength in these circumstances as a VERY USD bullish message. Especially, if there is not a lot of exodus at the close today.
I don't want to sound obnoxious, but this reminds me the rumors that "Osama has been caught" everytime the S&P rallied back in 2003.
Don't know if there's an official source, and I'm not sure one is actually needed. My subscription service (IFR) mentions whenever there is a repatriation large enough to notice, or one coming, but I don't think it's necessary. The overall issue is that estimated repatriation is $500B by year end, and that's quite a number.