Why 72 Hrs Before Hurricans Landfall $ Strengthen

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Comandatore, Sep 22, 2005.

  1. Well, I guess with Rita on the way ......irrationally the $ will stregthen...can anybody explain to me why for God Sake!!!!

    Is it European Insurrance company that sells Euro to cover USA hurrican risks....
  2. Hello Comandatore, I guess the trillions of Global $'s traded in the positioning of Metals/ Financials/petrols/ ect.. is not going to be influenced by a week long storm.
    The market (fx) is to big, it might move from intraday traders on the wrong side, but is soon to continue previous sentiment.

  3. I'm surprised (and equally frustrated) it hasn't gone down yet but I think it will soon. Any kind of damage to US growth via hurricanes or high oil is damage to what constitutes the only reason to buy dollars, growth, and this will soon outweight concerns about Germany's political environment.

    When is it supposed to go down? We had a global correction today with oil going down and stocks going up, so today would have been illogical. The mystery is why it didn't loose more ground yesterday. Was it because it was to early for fx markets to completely shift their focus from Germany's problems to problems in the US?
  4. Guess its that old "don't fight the fed" story.
  5. Pabst


    Market's discount the future. Is there anything about Rita that seems irreversable to you? An unresolved German government is a MUCH bigger FX story than a hurricane.

    An aside: I would say (althiugh I don't think it's an issue) that an event that causes a loss of dollars is bullish. Someones going to need dollars to pay claims.
  6. Not irreversible, but defenetly damaging all sectors ...ok markets discount future...exactly with Two hurricanes forecasted 3 weeks ago, one landfalled 2 weeks ago the other on saturday morning...market discounts the opposite $ strenghten WHY??well i would be iterested to look to the last 20 years all hurricanes effects on the FX from the time they have been tracked till the landfall how the market reacts...since we will be seeing more and more Hurricanes with global warm and more devastating ones..sadly we will look at it as investment opportunity...
  7. taking in consideration that a middle eastern bank sold some 3b€ this morning i wonder what is the magnitude of such trade in terms of pips of the day....
  8. agree with you, but global warming is changing the meterological data and i am afread such events H5 will be more often, that would seriously change the way hurricanes will be analyzed
  9. "Don't fight the Fed" as in US bond yields at 50yr lows and Greenspan's "conundrum"? Where the big man himself is wondering why long rates won't follow short term ones?
  10. No.

    It's the fact that the market is filled of insane traders/investors.

    remember, 99% of market participants (who, overall, move the prices) lose.
    #10     Sep 23, 2005