Who's stupid enough to be shorting these levels?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by athlonmank8, Feb 23, 2009.

State your business

  1. Short, we're toast

    118 vote(s)
    61.8%
  2. Long, USA isn't going anywhere

    35 vote(s)
    18.3%
  3. Short NOW converted to long

    29 vote(s)
    15.2%
  4. Long NOW converted to short

    9 vote(s)
    4.7%
  1. It's a bear market you know...

    If you feel compelled to buy something, that's what puts are for... :p
     
    #71     Feb 26, 2009
  2. This plan doesn't make sense to me. If you know the index is not going to move up for 1-2 years, why tie up your capital buying it now? Wouldn't you be better off buying it in 1-2 year?
     
    #72     Feb 26, 2009
  3. VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

    can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?

    [​IMG]
     
    #73     Feb 26, 2009
  4. I know that. But Vega's (that's the word you should be using) only a small portion of the option pricing.

    not only that, but you're wrong all together pretty much. Options are priced off their on IV and HV for the most part with $vix playing a role WITH that. AKA not a big deal.

    I bought these options a few days ago....not when the $vix was at the highs.
     
    #74     Feb 26, 2009
  5. yeah but your point's not even a big deal lol. You have to trade options to understand that.
     
    #75     Feb 26, 2009
  6. Exactly that's what he's not getting. I didn't get into these things until a few days ago.

    I took some profits today and actually added a new put? If i'm doing something wrong here please inform me.

    I sold USB for a 150% gain as well as ESV for 100% leaving quite a bit (mostly money) on the table at the moment.

    Options are mis-priced anyways by a normal curve.
     
    #76     Feb 26, 2009
  7. dave74

    dave74

    I give you full credit for your honesty. I was right about you being really young.

    Let me get this straight. Are you saying you're paying for 2 people's rent and other monthly bills solely with your trading profits?
     
    #77     Feb 26, 2009
  8. Explain how pricing is not important?
     
    #78     Feb 26, 2009
  9. Redneck

    Redneck


    Did the same today - so I claim to be half ass-smart (make up for yesterday)


    Who knows tomorrow I may be all stupid.. or all smart - or half and half... we'll just have to see

    Take Care
     
    #79     Feb 27, 2009

  10. FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

    How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

    The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.
     
    #80     Feb 28, 2009