SPY dropped ~6% after the above post. Yet, VIX and call/put did NOT really move up. We need some sort of capitulation to start moving noticeably higher. Where is the fear? SPY, DIA, XLF at new lows today. VIX ~50
I honestly think there won't be a capitulation, but what do I know? We may just have a steady bleed out until there's just nothing left but people/funds who have just resigned themselves that this is the way it's going to be, and they're done selling and will just have to wait 20 years for it to come back.
That's exactly the question I'm asking myself. put/call ratio should reach november levels for me to believe we have arrived to some sort of a bottom... BTW, the online charts for PUT/CALL I use have 12 hour delay. Can you suggest any online service providing those faster?
All these number are skewed in so many way; for example; GE's debts are trading like triple Bs, yet its rating still stand at triple As. And they just cut JP Morgan's rating. It just tells you how shity of market is. Just stay out their way. They are rushing shits all over the streets. Widows; orphans and retirees, people who rely on fixed income will be on line for bail out next.
2/23 Dow Close 7,114.78 Today 6,594.44 Difference 520.34 Looks like the geniuses were right, and most of us are smarter than you.
Seriously, There can't be a capitulation when there are strong expectations the government will step in at in moment.
All this talk of an imminent bounce is bullshit...yes, that is how things normally work. And, i won't be surprised if it happens here, but... The reality is there is serious, significant and ongoing deleveraging/forced-selling taking place, and so there absolutely does not have to be a bounce. The market could continue straight down into the 5k's (on the DOW). If there is going to be a bear market rally (which everyone seems to be suggesting MUST happen, another bad sign), there also must be some reasonable catalyst for it...and the reality is, given how quickly things are unraveling, we may not get a catalyst for next 30-60 days, which at the current selling pace would quickly find us down another 1000 points on the Dow. Then again, we could get a surprise (false hope) on the employment report tomorrow and get the rally everyone is expecting. It could happen. But, with the forced selling, I would probably put my money on continued, unabated downtrend (or, just stay on the sidelines). I'm looking for 5000-5500 before a bounce, but im prepared for one that shows up sooner.